Egyptian Vice President Talks with Opposition; Military Recognizes "Legitimacy of the People’s Demands"; Can the U.S. Deal with ElBaradei?

With each passing day, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's control is rapidly dissipating. The crisis is now in day seven. The military, called in to keep peace, has sided with the people. Some tanks even display anti-government messages.

It what seems to be a last ditch effort to buy time, Egypt's newly appointed Vice President is in talks with the opposition. That is a sign Mubarak may be in his final days before some agreement to replace him is hashed out.

The New York Times reports Mubarak’s Grip on Power Is Shaken.

The government of Egypt’s authoritarian president, Hosni Mubarak, shook Monday night, as the Egyptian Army declared that it would not use force against protesters demanding his ouster and, in an apparent response, Mr. Mubarak’s most trusted adviser offered to talk with the opposition.

Hundreds of thousands have turned out into the streets over the last six days, and organizers called on millions of Egyptians to protest on Tuesday.

Within hours on Monday, the political landscape of the country shifted as decisively as it had at any moment in Mr. Mubarak’s three decades in power. The military seemed to aggressively assert itself as an arbiter between two irreconcilable forces: a popular uprising demanding Mr. Mubarak’s fall and his tenacious refusal to relinquish power.

How far Mr. Mubarak is offering to bend in negotiations remains to be seen, and given the potential ambiguities of both statements it is too soon to write off the survival of his government.

But the six-day-old uprising here entered a new stage about 9 p.m. when a uniformed military spokesman declared on state television that “the armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people.” Addressing the throngs who took to the streets, he declared that the military understood “the legitimacy of your demands” and “affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.”

A roar of celebration rose up immediately from the crowd of thousands of protesters still lingering in Tahrir Square, where a television displayed the news. Opposition leaders argued that the phrase “the legitimacy of your demands” could only refer to the protests’ central request — Mr. Mubarak’s departure to make way for free elections.

About an hour later, Omar Suleiman, Mr. Mubarak’s right-hand man and newly named vice president, delivered another address, lasting just two minutes.

“I was assigned by the president today to contact all the political forces to start a dialogue about all the raised issues concerning constitutional and legislative reform,” he said, “and to find a way to clearly identify the proposed amendments and specific timings for implementing them.”

Mr. Mubarak’s previously unquestioned authority had already eroded deeply over the preceding three days. On Friday, hundreds of thousands of unarmed civilian protesters routed his government’s heavily armed security police in a day of street battles, burning his ruling party’s headquarters to the ground as the police fled the capital. On Saturday, Mr. Mubarak deployed the military in their place, only to find the rank-and-file soldiers fraternizing with the protesters and revolutionary slogans being scrawled on their tanks.

And on Sunday, leaders of various opposition groups met to select Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Prize-winning former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to negotiate for them in anticipation of talks with Mr. Mubarak about forming a transitional unity government — an idea Mr. Mubarak’s surrogate embraced Monday.

Egypt Offers Opposition Talks in Bid to End Protests

In a similar story, Bloomberg reports Egypt Offers Opposition Talks in Bid to End Protests

Newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman offered talks with opposition groups in a bid to end Egypt’s unrest as protesters urged a million people to take to the streets today and force President Hosni Mubarak from office.

The announcement by Suleiman, one of Mubarak’s closest advisers, that he would open talks was made on Egyptian state television. Thousands of protesters erupted in cheers in Tahrir Square, the downtown plaza which honors the 1952 revolution in which the Egyptian military overthrew a constitutional monarchy and proclaimed a republic.

State TV later reported that the talks between the Mubarak regime and some of its opponents had begun, but didn’t identify participants. Opposition groups also called for all Egyptians to take part in a nationwide strike.

“If I hear the news correctly this morning, the military are in agreement with the people,” Ong Eng Tong, a Singapore- based consultant with Hamburg-based oil trader Mabanaft Gmbh., said on Bloomberg television. “And this will be a repetition of what happened in the Philippines I think about 20 years ago during Aquino’s time where everything will be settled once the military and the people get together.”

The anti-Mubarak movement, backed by former United Nations nuclear official Mohamed ElBaradei and the Muslim Brotherhood, is aiming to force the resignation of the 82-year-old Mubarak after 30 years in power, said Mahmoud El-Said, one of the organizers.

The Egyptian opposition has set up a committee, including ElBaradei, 68, and the Brotherhood, that will convey the movement’s demands to the government, said Ayman Nour, who was a distant second to Mubarak in Egypt’s first multi-candidate election in 2005.

Mad Scramble to Size Up ElBaradei

Please consider U.S. Scrambles to Size Up ElBaradei

When President Obama unexpectedly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, one predecessor was quick to applaud his selection for the award.

“I could not have thought of any other person that is more deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize than Barack Obama,” Mohamed ElBaradei, then the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a videotaped statement. He went on to praise Mr. Obama’s commitment “to restore moral decency” to the lives of people around the world.

But on Sunday, Mr. ElBaradei, now a prominent face of the opposition on the streets of Cairo, was sounding a different tune. “The American government cannot ask the Egyptian people to believe that a dictator who has been in power for 30 years will be the one to implement democracy,” Mr. ElBaradei told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” He called the United States’ refusal to openly abandon President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt “a farce.”

Mr. ElBaradei, 68, had a fractious relationship with the Bush administration, one so hostile that Bush officials tried to get him removed from his post at the atomic watchdog agency. But as Egypt’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition on the streets of Cairo have increasingly coalesced around Mr. ElBaradei to negotiate on their behalf, the Obama administration is scrambling to figure out whether he is someone with whom the United States can deal.

“Ironically, the fact that ElBaradei crossed swords with the Bush administration on Iraq and Iran helps him in Egypt, and God forbid we should do anything to make it seem like we like him,” said Philip D. Zelikow, former counselor at the State Department during the Bush years. For all of his tangles with the Bush administration, Mr. ElBaradei, an international bureaucrat well known in diplomatic circles, is someone whom the United States can work with, Mr. Zelikow said.

However, he allowed, “Some people in the administration had a jaundiced view of his work.”

Among them was John Bolton, the former Bush administration United States ambassador to the United Nations, who routinely clashed with Mr. ElBaradei on Iran. “He is a political dilettante who is excessively pro-Iran,” he complained. Even some of Mr. ElBaradei’s staff members chafed a bit when he softened the edges of I.A.E.A. reports, especially on Iran. They believed he was doing everything he could to avoid giving the Bush administration, or Israel, a reason to launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Dealing with Reality

For starters, I applaud ElBaradei's willingness to stand up to the Bush administration's Mideast war mongering efforts. President Bush blew trillions of dollars in a senseless war.

However, the current situation is different. ElBaradei needs to stand up to Obama to gain credibility of the Muslim Brotherhood. Therefore, ElBaradei 's criticism of Obama is essentially meaningless. Moreover, I see nothing wrong with his statements.

I find it humorous that people are asking "Can the U.S. deal with ElBaradei?"

The reality is the U.S. is likely going to have to deal with ElBaradei before that next Egyptian government is decided, whether we like it or not. Then the U.S. is going to have to deal with the next ruler of Egypt whether we like that person or not.

Let's hope Egypt chooses wisely. Then let's hope the U.S. deals with the outcome wisely. Unfortunately, our track record on the latter is abysmal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Who wants a food sack dress?

My reaction to the news that young women don't know how to iron a shirt or cook a roast anymore is simply "Well, iron this, buddy!" As Enchidne concludes, it is really these lost gender roles that are being mourned -- the days when men brought home the bacon and women fried it up in a pan.



As Miss Piggy says, what would you do with a food sack dress anyway.
And anyone can learn how to cook a roast -- let me google that for you.
Though perhaps some shouldn't try:

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So that's what dogs are sniffing for!

Once again, animals are trying to tell us something and we haven't been listening.

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Changing Their Course

Rarely are NHL fans treated to a new look midway through the NHL season. Rarely are we treated to a shift in the values, vision, and direction of a franchise so thoroughly with half the season still to be played. And it is the rarest of cases that a franchise will debut new uniforms midway through a season while still wearing their old uniforms. However, the Tampa Bay Lightning have decided to break the trend of waiting until the off-season to debut their new uniforms by unveiling them today. Of course, I have my take on these new threads, so we'll take a look at the good, bad, and indifferent about these new uniforms, and we'll have an overall grade of the new look debuted by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

We've seen a monumental shift in how the Lightning does business since Steve Yzerman took the reins as general manager of the Floridian franchise. The Lightning have definitely changed from an outside point-of-view, extolling the virtues of honour, tradition, respect, and doing things the "right way" as values of their franchise. So it comes as no surprise that the Tampa Bay Lightning published a new set of core values on which the team will build.

If you read that vision statement correctly, the Lightning represent three major keys: the Tampa Bay community, a championship team, and hallmark events. These are the cornerstones of the Lightning franchise in that they will represent and be part of the Tampa Bay community as both corporate citizens and icons within the community; they will be a championship-calibre team so that the metropolitan area of Tampa and St. Petersburg can be proud of their hockey franchise, and proudly stand behind and support their NHL club; and, the Lightning will host hallmark events in which the people of the Tampa Bay area can take part and of which they can be proud. Essentially, the Tampa Bay Lightning are redefining themselves in the market they play in, and I think this is an excellent idea.

Not only are the Lightning pledging to be more visual and more active in the community, but they are committing themselves to the community of Tampa Bay as partners and citizens. But it's not like this vision just suddenly appeared as some apparition to the men who run the Lightning. Instead, this is the basis that the vast majority of northern NHL markets run their businesses. Franchises like Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Minnesota, and Detroit send their players out into the community to interact with fans all the time at various community events. It's no secret that Steve Yzerman, a long-time Detroit Red Wing, is putting this vision forward as a way for the Lightning to become more visible in their own yard. This, readers, is how you generate buzz about your team. For a team that's deep in the sunbelt, this is nothing but a good idea. GOOD.

While the vision statement is something brand-new for this franchise that now puts an onus on the club in being a good corporate citizen, I have to admit that I'm shocked that the Lightning took a step back in their branding of themselves. The new logos, while fairly clear, are also still regressing backwards from their previous iterations. While we saw this work in the case of the Vancouver Canucks as they moved to new uniforms, the Lightning, to me, should be a little more bold. After all, lightning is a pretty awesome force in nature. So while the overall aesthetic of the Lightning hasn't been lost, it does seem a little underwhelming just being one colour. PUSH.

The new uniforms are different, and normally I believe that different is good if it leads to something better. The Lightning have essentially turned a once-bold look into a very subdued look. While I'm not totally against the idea of simplifying anyone's look, we go back to the Lightning being a name that exudes energy and boldness. Had the Minnesota Wild come up with a logo like this, the brand simply doesn't fit the identity. I feel that the home jersey's brand doesn't have the same effect without the black and silver that it once does, and the Lightning are worse off for it. STUPID.

However, I do like the blue colour that the Lightning have decided on for the home jerseys. I was always a fan of the alternate jersey that the Lightning wore in the late-1990s, and the "electric blue" that they wear on their current alternate jerseys stands out. While the Lightning certainly could use some black and silver highlights, the home jersey would essentially look a lot like their current alternate jerseys... making them Dallas East. Kudos for the Lightning in opting for the blue background for their home jerseys, and for not selecting navy blue as their primary colour. GOOD.

The new white road jersey is even more sterile than their current road jersey. Again, the jersey could certainly use some black and/or silver highlights to make the jersey "pop" a little more. After all, we're talking about "the Lightning". And I'm not a fan of the "Tampa Bay" written across this jersey. As you know, I seriously think that NHL teams need to live and die by their logos and branding and not the city name. While the city name is vitally important to the identity of the team, when you read "Chicago hockey", the Blackhawks logo probably comes to mind. Lose the name, grab some jersey accents for this road jersey. STUPID.

The new shoulder patch being sported by the Lightning is magnificent. Honestly, I love the retro look of this new patch, and I think that this design has a lot of opportunity to be a very good logo for branding. First, circular logos are automatically pleasing to the eye in their nature. Don't believe me? Think about these logos - Target, Apple, Disney, Mercedes-Benz, the Olympic Rings, AT&T, Shell Petroleum. What do they all have in common? They are round or have large portions of their logos in a round shape. And I guarantee that most of you can picture each of those logos in your head.

Secondly, the patch is very simplistic in its design. Less is definitely more in this case, and I think the Lightning should be very happy with this design. I, for one, think it could almost be their primary logo. GOOD.

I apologize for the size of the picture, but the Lightning have gone to single-colour names and numbers on the back of the jerseys. I'm certainly not complaining because you can read the names and numbers quite easily in that small picture, and it is much better than some of their previous font choices. The font is clean and simple, and that's perfect. GOOD.

Overall, the look of these new jerseys leaves me wanting more from the Lightning. It's not to say that they're bad or that I won't get used to them, but in comparison to today's look and yesterday's look, the Lightning just seem less aggressive in their new duds. Having the legends show up and wear the new uniforms, including Phil Esposito who never played for the Lightning, was a little much in terms of presentation.

The Lightning also announced that their recently-introduced alternate jerseys would move forward with the new uniforms to remain as the alternate jersey. So while the "Victory Stripes" may be gone from the home and road jerseys, fans of the Lightning will still get to see them when the Lightning play games in their alternate uniforms. As much as I like to make fun of the armpit stripes, they are unique to the Lightning, so I'm glad to see the stripes remain. However, I'm still not sold on "Bolts". PUSH.

So there are the new-look Tampa Bay Lightning in all of their uniform glory. Personally, I think the look will grow on me, so I'm going to give these jerseys a thumbs-up as they went 4-2-2 in the GOOD-STUPID-PUSH record. Time will tell how the Lightning fare in their traditional design, but at least Steve Yzerman didn't resort to bringing Manon Rhéaume in to back up Dwayne Roloson.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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CORRECTED REPOST

This posting contains a video. To hear it properly, please mute the sound on the "Ave Maria" music widget located on the right hand side of this page.

Due to a problem with one of the videos, in yesterdays posting, YouTube pulled my video. So therefore, I am re-posting my video with one minor change, which will allow you to still see all three of them. The first video shows the wonders of video technology that allows Martina McBride to sing a duet with Elvis Presley, even though she was born several years after Elvis had passed away. The second video (which actually contains two videos in one) shows a man's choice of pets, and; a woman cuddling on a beach with a sea lion (notice the penguins gathering for a closer look.)

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Federal Judge in Florida Voids Entire Healthcare Law; Obama's Concern "Bragging Rights"

In a case destined to go to the Supreme Court, the Insurance Journal reports Federal Judge in Florida Rules Federal Healthcare Law Must Be Voided

U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson, appointed to the bench by President Ronald Reagan in 1983, ruled that the reform law’s so-called “individual mandate” went too far in requiring that Americans start buying health insurance in 2014 or pay a penalty.

“Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire act must be declared void. This has been a difficult decision to reach, and I am aware that it will have indeterminable implications,” Vinson wrote.

He was referring to a key provision in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and sided with governors and attorneys general from 26 U.S. states, almost all of whom are Republicans, in declaring it unconstitutional. The issue will likely end up at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Two other federal judges have rejected challenges to the individual mandate.

But a federal district judge in Richmond, Virginia, last month struck down that central provision of the law in a case in that state, saying it invited an “unbridled exercise of federal police powers.”

The provision is key to the law’s mission of covering more than 30 million uninsured. Officials argue it is only by requiring healthy people to purchase policies that they can help pay for reforms, including a mandate that individuals with pre-existing medical conditions cannot be refused coverage.

Unbridled Exercise of Federal Police Powers

Please consider the Wall Street Journal article Court Strikes at Health Law

U.S. District Judge Henry E. Hudson said the law's requirement that most Americans carry insurance or pay a penalty "exceeds the constitutional boundaries of congressional power."

The 42-page ruling doesn't mean states or the federal government must stop implementing the law. But it is expected to give ammunition to a broad Republican assault against the overhaul, which includes efforts in Congress to chip away at it.

Requiring Americans to buy insurance "would invite unbridled exercise of federal police powers," wrote Judge Hudson, a George W. Bush appointee in the Eastern District of Virginia. "At its core, this dispute is not simply about regulating the business of insurance—or crafting a scheme of universal health insurance coverage—it's about an individual's right to choose to participate."

Administration officials portrayed the ruling as an attack on one of the law's most popular provisions, the ban on insurers denying coverage to people with pre-existing health conditions. That piece of the law cannot work unless coupled with a requirement that nearly all Americans carry insurance, they said.

Who Cares if it's Constitutional as Long as it's Popular?

Obama does not care about constitutionality. He is concerned about bragging rights (He got healthcare passed when no other president could). He is also concerned about popularity.

Ironically, most polls show US citizens are not in favor of the bill that passed.

I happen to agree with the Virginia and Florida rulings regarding constitutionality of that provision. Moreover, given the poor way in which the bill was written, I also agree with the Florida ruling “Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable, the entire act must be declared void."

Many will point to auto insurance as proof of legality. However, not everyone has to buy auto insurance (only those drive cars do). Moreover, the point of auto insurance is to protect others from your damage, not yourself from your damage.

Nonetheless, I do not know how the Supreme Court will rule. I suspect they will uphold the law. They would be wise to not do so. The best thing to do with the monstrous healthcare bill is start over.

Addendum:

"LastBoyScout" says ...

Good points! Another, more important point is that auto insurance is required by individual states, not the federal government.

The 10th Amendment - Powers of States and people.

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Japan Learns to Live with Deflation (If Only Analysts Could Figure Out How)

In Japan, wages are lower, but so are prices for goods and services, even food. Japan's companies are devising ways to profit from deflation, says Bloomberg writer Aki Ito in Japan Learns to Live with Deflation.

Ben Bernanke has been lecturing on deflation's perils since he joined the Federal Reserve in 2002 and has often held up Japan as Exhibit A.

There's something curious about the way the deflation syndrome has played out in Japan, though. The Japanese don't feel that threatened anymore. "Everyone knew deflation was bad for jobs and bad for the economy, but gradually households and companies just got used to it," says Martin Schulz, a senior economist at Tokyo's Fujitsu Research Institute.

Deflation—the steady drop in prices of goods, wages, and services—has many ill effects. Households are stuck paying off mortgages, car loans, and other debt even as their take-home pay has declined. Also, as housing values fall, consumers have smaller nest eggs for retirement. Companies, meanwhile, are unable to raise prices, which puts pressure on profits.

Yet the Japanese have discovered the benefits of deflation as well. Monthly pay dropped to an average 315,294 yen ($3,800) in 2009, the lowest level since the government began tracking wage data in 1990. "It's not like I'm promised any pay raises," says Momoko Noguchi. The 24-year-old Tokyo resident gets by on two part-time jobs by shopping for everything from nail polish to dinner plates at her local 100-yen outlet (the Japanese equivalent of an American dollar store), and she pays 400 yen or less for lunch. "I hope prices keep falling." Four out of five Japanese say higher costs would be "unfavorable," according to a central bank survey.

To help reverse a seven-year decline in same-store sales, McDonald's Holdings Japan, a unit of McDonald's (MCD), introduced a 100-yen menu in 2005. The chain's 100-yen hamburger sold for 210 yen in 1990. "We wanted our customers to know that we've changed," says Kazuyuki Hagiwara, Tokyo-based senior marketing manager at the company. Since the debut of the lower-priced menu, same-store sales have climbed every year. McDonald's Japan shares have returned 17 percent in the past three years.

Price cutting by companies has helped Japanese consumers adjust to deflation. The average household owns 1.4 cars and 2.4 color TVs, about a quarter more than in 1990, a Cabinet Office survey shows. Deflation has helped home buyers, too, by forcing prices down from their peaks in 1990: According to calculations based on yearly Land Ministry data, Japan's residential land prices have dropped by an average of 2.9 percent a year over the past two decades.

So is deflation a blessing in disguise? Not to analysts such as Richard Jerram, head of Asian economics at Macquarie Securities (MGU). He points out that as businesses cut prices to compete, it becomes harder to borrow and invest. "It's extremely corrosive," he says. Deflation, adds Jerram, will steadily sap Japan's nominal growth and deprive the government of tax revenue. Eventually, Japan may no longer be able to finance its borrowing. The country will then either have to default on debt that's about twice the size of the economy or devalue its currency to reduce the real value of liabilities. "That's the unavoidable endgame," says Jerram, who has analyzed the Japanese economy since 1987. "As long as it's in the future, everybody can pretend it's someone else's problem."

The bottom line: Although deflation ultimately poses a serious threat to Japan, ordinary consumers are benefiting from lower prices.

Erroneous Conclusions

It is painful to watch someone gather the facts then jump to the wrong conclusions.

Even worse than Ito's fallacious "bottom line" conclusion is the thought process from Richard Jerram at Macquarie Securities (MGU), supportive of that conclusion.

It would help if Jerram thought for 15 seconds (about the right things) before yapping nonsense. Japan is in debt to the tune of 200% of GDP because it squandered massive Japanese savings over the course of decades, in a foolish and futile fight against deflation.

Japan would not be at risk of default and would instead be sitting on a mountain of cash instead of a mountain of debt had it not squandered money building bridges to nowhere in a battle that should not have been fought, and clearly was not winnable in the first place.

Moreover, if prices are falling, they are falling for the government as well (at least they should be). Therein lay the problem. Governments want ever increasing amounts of revenue to support huge untenable, and needlessly growing bureaucracies, regardless of what prices and wages are doing.

That is what saps a country's strength. Yet, Jerram comes to the amazing conclusion that inability to collect higher taxes saps a country's strength.

The last time I checked, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Honda were still in business and doing fine. So are Sony, Panasonic, Kyocera, Nippon, etc.

Since Ito never explained his bottom line "Although deflation ultimately poses a serious threat to Japan, ordinary consumers are benefiting from lower prices" I suspect it came from listening to Keynesian clowns like Jerram who has studied this problem for 24 years and failed to learn a damn thing.

The fact of the matter is there is nothing corrosive about deflation per se. Indeed falling prices and rising lifestyles as a result of increasing productivity should be expected.

However, there is something corrosive about going deep into debt that cannot be paid back. That is the situation Japan finds itself in today (primarily because the government listened to Keynesian and Monetarist jackasses who insisted that deflation was something that needed to be fought).

Of course the US (led by Bernanke), Europe (with its sovereign debt crisis), and Australia, Canada, and China (with their housing bubbles) are in the same sorry condition.

What cannot be paid back won't. That is the message of Japan. That is the message of Greece, and Ireland. That is the message in the US. That is the message in Australia, Canada, and China.

With so many messages and with savers wanting lower prices (please see Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"), how the hell can people like Ito and Jerram get it 180 degrees wrong?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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th nxt bg thng (y i dnt twt)

I'm sticking fast to my resolve to not be on Twitter. I have no doubt that it would sometimes be fun and useful. On the other hand, do I need it? The answer is most definitely no.

My life is so full of distractions. I rarely have enough time to focus clearly and at length on the things that matter most to me. I want to read in-depth articles and hefty novels, not skim headlines - in both the literal and figurative sense.

I also want quiet space. I want space in my life not spent in front of a screen of any type.

This relates to my extreme aversion to the number one scourge of modern life, an even greater annoyance than inappropriate cell phone use: background music. The music played in every store, waiting area, coffee shop, mall, in every everywhere. Every moment of our lives must be filled with some form of entertainment. We must never be alone with our thoughts. This is how I see Twitter - as if we all must have a constant scroll, a feed, a zipper, at the bottom of our life screens.

I somewhat enjoy Facebook, and I find it very useful for activism. But Facebook is also a giant time-sucking machine, a potential addiction - another distraction. I have no reason to think Twitter would be any different.

Please note: this is how I feel. This is not Twitter Is Bad. Twitter is a toy, or a tool, or a means of communication, or a method of information delivery: neither inherently good nor bad. If you enjoy it and it works for you, that's what counts.

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I'M BACK!!

This posting contains a video. To hear it properly, please mute the sound on the "Ave Maria" music widget located on the right hand side of this page.


I am finally back after a month long bout of pneumonia. I wish to thank all of you have expressed concern and offered prayers for my recovery.

While I was ill, I paid very little attention to the garbage going on in the political world so I have a lot of catching up to do. Thus, for my first posting since returning, I have decided to post a fun video which actually contains three videos in one.

The first one shows the wonders of video technology that allows Martina McBride to sing a duet with Elvis Presley, even though she was born several years after Elvis had passed away.

The second shows a man's choice of pets, and;

The third shows a woman cuddling on a beach with a sea lion (notice the penguins gathering for a closer look.

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Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"

Here is an email from "Stephanie". She heard me talk about the economy on Coast-to-Coast AM radio with George Noory.

Stephanie writes ....

Hello Mish,

I don't know if you give advice, but I heard you on Coast-To-Coast and you seem to know what you are talking about. I am 65 years old, get $938 from Social Security, and this is all I live on every month.

I have a CD that is about $16,000 now and is providing $75 a month. In about a year that will stop because the interest has gone down so much. If you were me, what would you invest in?

I lost $2,000 in the stock market a few years ago and the way it is now it is rather scary. I don't know what else to even consider and when I ask my banker he seems to be at a loss too.

Any help you could offer would be a blessing. Thank you for your consideration and kindness.

Stephanie - Somewhere, USA

Clobbered by the Fed

Hi Stephanie

You and many others are getting clobbered by the policies of the Fed. Not only did taxpayers bail out the banks at taxpayer expense, Bernanke and the Fed continues to do so.

By holding interest rates low, the Fed is hurting everyone on fixed income with savings in the bank or CDs. You get almost no interest on your savings, and that is robbing you and everyone else like you.

Bernanke is hoping people like you gamble and invest in risky assets. Indeed, he is doing everything he can to force people into taking more risk.

Don't do it. It is not a prudent thing to do.

The stock market is extremely overvalued here and could easily decline hard. Indeed, I think it will at some point.

Emergency Fund in Cash

My straight forward advice to everyone is to have an emergency fund of at least a year's worth of living expenses in the bank before they invest in stocks, bonds, gold or anything other than short-term CDs or treasuries.

It is obvious that Bernanke's concern is doing what is best for banks. He shows no concern about the damage he is causing elsewhere.

Bernanke is a Coward Hiding Behind Mathematical Formulas

I wish I could get Bernanke in a room with you and everyone in your position, and take questions from you.

Bernanke will not do that because he is a coward. He hides behind mathematical formulas, the same ones I might point out that told him housing was not in a bubble, there was no risk of recession, and that the unemployment rate would not top 8%.

He did not know what he was doing then, and he certainly does not understand the risks now.

Moreover, his "Quantitative Easing" policies have helped fuel speculation in commodities, especially food and gasoline. That speculation is contributing not only to rising prices in the US, but even more so globally.

To be fair, there are some severe weather problems in other parts of the world that affect growing conditions and thus food prices. In addition, there is massive credit expansion in China and India that puts upward pressure on food and energy.

However, there is also little doubt that Bernanke has fueled commodity speculation with his low interest rate policies and that too has pushed prices higher.

Believe it or not, Bernanke is worried that prices might fall. I suspect you would love to see prices fall, and so would everyone else in your situation.

Unfortunately, Bernanke intends to keep interest rates low until prices go up to his liking, and then when prices do start rising, interest you earn on your CD will not keep up with prices.

Bear in mind, that the Fed excludes food and energy from the prices they monitor. They desperately want housing prices to rise. However, the Fed can make money available, but it cannot control where that money goes.

Serial Bubble Blowing

The Fed's loose money policies fueled a housing bubble last time, now money is pouring into commodities, junk bonds, and leveraged buyouts (once again). This is bound to end badly once again.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rates is still 9.4% officially, and much higher unofficially.

Fed's Policy Is Theft

Stephanie, it's a little known fact that inflation benefits those with first access to money, such as the banks, the wealthy (via rising asset prices), and the government (think rising sales taxes and property taxes when prices go up).

Everyone else gets screwed. You are right in the middle of the pack of those most hurt by the serial bubble blowing policies of the Fed.

Viewed this way, Bernanke's policies are nothing but theft, robbing the poor, for the benefit of banks and the wealthy.

This is why I support Congressman Ron Paul's effort to end the Fed.

No Good Solutions for Those on Fixed Income

Your dilemma is 1-year treasuries yield a mere .23%.

Unfortunately, I have no good investment solutions for you, because there are none. You are not suited for stock market risks, and if there is any chance you will need to use your savings any time soon, you cannot afford to risk being in long-term CDs.

Arguably the best thing for you to do is find a bank that has 1% or higher rates on savings accounts.

Avoid Fees

There are some other common-sense things you can do. For example, it is critical for you to avoid all fees. If you have fees on your checking account now, find a place that does not have them. Bankrate can help on CD rates, savings rates, and checking account rates.

Invest in a Freezer

I do not know whether you have a home or an apartment, but if you have room, get a suitably-sized freezer and only buy meat on sale. The price of meat on sale is frequently 50% or less of meat not on sale.

Wrapped properly, many food items will last a year or longer. Use freezer paper for roasts and date every package. Packaged bacon also freezes well. I only buy bacon when it is 2 for 1. If you are nimble, learn to cut your own chicken. If not, buy the cuts you like on sale and freeze those.

Buy ground beef on sale and make patties the size you like and freeze those. Pork chops freeze well too. I use good quality plastic wrap doubled up. Costco has excellent quality wrap in a large spool that will last a very long time. Get all the air pockets out or you will get freezer burn.

Vacuum packaged cheese also stores well. It needs to be refrigerated and can be frozen, but does not have to be frozen.

Buy storable commodities such as spaghetti, pinto beans, brown rice, etc. on sale. Try not to buy anything unless it is on sale. Then buy large quantities.

Complain to the Fed

If I had an email or Fax number for Ben Bernanke or the Fed I would post it. Unfortunately all I have is a link to a contact form. You can use that form to Contact Ben Bernanke and give him a piece of your mind.

Change the button on the form to "Comment for Board Members" and blast away. It will not do any good because the Fed does not care about the plight of those on fixed income, but it might make you feel better.

I hope some of these ideas help. Best wishes.

Good luck to you Stephanie.

For everyone else ... This does not change my stance on deflation. I think round II of a major credit crunch is likely. All of the structural problems remain and the global economy is at least as unbalanced as before, possibly more so. On a credit basis (which is what matters to those not retired and struggling on fixed income), I expect the US to dip in and out of deflation over a number of years as did Japan.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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ElBaradei Unifies Opposition, Criticizes Obama; Business Grinds to a Halt; Ports Shut Down, Food Prices Soar; Shortages of Food, Water, Fuel

Business in Egypt has ground to a halt. Food and consumer goods stack up in ports. Gas stations have not had deliveries for days and supplies dwindle. Simple economic theory suggests prices will soar and they have.

After an initial lukewarm reception when he first returned to Egypt, Nobel laureate and opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei has picked up some much-needed support from the Muslim Brotherhood. That support creates a somewhat united secular-religious opposition to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

An emboldened ElBaradei is now openly critical of the Obama administration. "It’s better for President Obama not to appear that he is the last one to say to President Mubarak, it’s time for you to go," Dr. ElBaradei said.

ElBaradei Begins to Unify Opposition

The New York Times reports Opposition Rallies to ElBaradei as Military Reinforces in Cairo

Egypt’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition banded together Sunday around a prominent government critic to negotiate for forces seeking the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, as the army struggled to hold a capital seized by fears of chaos and buoyed by euphoria that three decades of Mr. Mubarak’s rule may be coming to an end.

The announcement that the critic, Mohamed ElBaradei, would represent a loosely unified opposition reconfigured the struggle between Mr. Mubarak’s government and a six-day-old uprising bent on driving him and his party from power.

“Today we are proud of Egyptians,” Dr. ElBaradei told throngs who surged toward him in a square festooned with banners calling for Mr. Mubarak’s fall. “We have restored our rights, restored our freedom, and what we have begun cannot be reversed.”

Dr. ElBaradei declared it a “new era,” and as night fell there were few in Egypt who seemed to disagree.

“It’s better for President Obama not to appear that he is the last one to say to President Mubarak, it’s time for you to go,” Dr. ElBaradei said.

Ports Shut Down, Food Prices Soar, Business Grinds to a Halt

The internet is shut down, so are cell phones, and so are ports. Goods stack up at docks, and supplies of fuel are at critical levels. After six days of riots, the Political Crisis Now Has Serious Economic Repercussions.

For four days now, containers arriving on ships have been stacking up at Egypt’s largest port, shipping company employees and truck drivers here said. With distribution networks barely functioning and the Internet down since Thursday night, much of business in Egypt has nearly ground to a halt.

“A big part of the production system is government-run, and this is frozen, including many of the bakeries making the subsidized bread,” said Hoda Youssef, an economist at the Arab Forum for Alternatives, an independent think tank and a lecturer at Cairo University. “Here in the short term — today, tomorrow, the coming few days — we might have a serious problem with shortages of food, water and fuel,” Ms. Youssef said.

“We did not get any new gas for the last two days,” said Mustafa Ahmad Hamadi, the owner of an Alexandria Mobil station, adding that he usually received about 2,600 gallons a day and now has only about 1,300 gallons left. He said that he had owned the station for 12 years, but has “never seen a situation like this before.”

“When I called the company, they told me there is no more distribution at this point and they don’t know when they can deliver again,” he said, as cars lined up for his remaining fuel and arguments broke out among customers despite employees’ efforts to keep them in line.

A taxi driver with two women waiting in the back seat said he had been to 12 gas stations since Saturday, and this was the only one with gas. “I am really worried,” said the driver, Muhammad Youssri Said, 29. “This car is the income for me and my family. No taxi, no money, no food.”

Potential Runs on Banks

Banks are now shut down as is the stock market. However, Egypt’s Banks Risk Deposit Run when they do open.

Egypt’s banks may risk a surge in customer withdrawals when they open for business, placing them among companies worst hit by the nationwide uprising against President Hosni Mubarak.

“A run on the banks would be the biggest concern, which is possible in the current situation,” Robert McKinnon, chief investment officer at ASAS Capital in Dubai, said in a telephone interview. Authorities are likely to keep the financial system closed to avert the risk, he said.

Egypt’s banks and markets stayed shut yesterday after six days of clashes in the most populous Arab country that left as many as 150 people dead.

Asked about the risk of a bank run, Mohamed Barakat, chairman of state-run Banque Misr and head of the country’s banking association, said in a telephone interview that Egyptian lenders are “very liquid,” with average loan-to-deposit ratios of 53 percent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Party Time in Davos

Egypt is flying apart, China and India are both overheating, and there has been no financial reform that will accomplish anything; nonetheless, it's party time in Davos.

One analyst with not enough clearance to party had a different message, so did Bloomberg columnist Simon Johnson. Otherwise it was party on dudes.

Please consider Lonely Analyst Warns of 2015 Bank Crisis Amid ‘Upbeat’ Davos

As politicians, executives and financiers networked at parties and panels last week in Davos, Switzerland, Barrie Wilkinson was in a nearby hotel, warning that a 2015 financial catastrophe may be looming.

“The fundamentals haven’t been addressed at all,” Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman, said in an interview at the Hotel Morosani Schweizerhof. “The things that caused the previous crisis -- loose monetary policy and trade imbalances -- they’re actually bigger now than they were then.”

In the caste system of the World Economic Forum’s annual event in the Swiss ski resort, Wilkinson was at a bottom rung, with an identification badge that denied him access to most sessions and soirees. His message clashed with the optimistic tone of many at the center of the meeting, who were eager to emphasize the progress made after two years of hand-wringing in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

“The systemic reforms that have been accomplished are significant,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said as he left a private meeting with finance company chief executive officers on Jan. 29. “We need to communicate better that financial institutions globally are operating on a very different basis today, that they are operating with higher capital and are better regulated.”

‘An Avoidable History’

Wilkinson’s report, titled “The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History,” isn’t so sanguine. The 24-page study describes how banks, unwilling to accept the lower returns on equity, or ROEs, that result from higher capital requirements, may fuel a new bubble by chasing high returns in commodities or emerging markets. Regulators, by focusing their restraints on banks, may drive risk-taking into unregulated funds that also pose danger to the system.

The report urges bank executives and shareholders to accept that returns of the past are unsustainable and that they need to do a better job of monitoring risks, especially in areas that produce unusually high profits.

“Banks need to be less leveraged,” said Wilkinson, who has an engineering degree from the University of Cambridge and has worked at Oliver Wyman since 1993, according to his LinkedIn page. “The true test for me of whether they’ve deleveraged is if the industrywide ROEs come down. If they don’t, I’m very suspicious that there are hidden risks in the system.”

Bloomberg Columnist Terrified

“I came into this dinner somewhat pessimistic and worried about the assignment we are here to discuss,” Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management and a Bloomberg News columnist, said halfway through the evening. “I am now terrified. There is an incipient sovereign crisis here mixed in with the bank crisis.”

It's Party Time

So much for pessimism, let's consider some party goers.

Financiers at Davos this year weren’t talking much about future returns on equity or potential bubbles. Instead they were holding parties and meeting clients. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, 54, hosted guests including Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell, 45, at a reception one night. He was out late the next night with hedge- fund manager Louis Bacon, 54, and other guests at a party hosted by Google Inc.

“In Davos, there’s a lot of optimism here, and I’m quite surprised by it, especially from corporate CEOs,” said Tarun Jotwani, CEO of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and global head of fixed income at Nomura. “It is against a backdrop of potentially the biggest macroeconomic public-finance mismatches that I’ve ever seen in my career.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, Bundesbank President Axel Weber and Spain’s finance minister, Elena Salgado, also spoke to a private gathering of some of the world’s top investors, including hedge-fund and private equity fund managers, according to two people who attended the meeting. The officials sought to assure the money managers that their policies would lead to growth and prevent a crisis in Europe.

“There was a very positive mood about what had been done so far,” said Howard Davies, a board member of New York- based Morgan Stanley and London-based insurance company Prudential Plc.

Put me in the party pooper column with Barrie Wilkinson and Simon Johnson.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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U.S. to Evacuate Americans From Egypt

Many US citizens have been trapped in Egypt hoping to get to any other country for connecting flights. Unfortunately, flights out of Egypt have ground to a halt. In response, the New York Times reports U.S. to Evacuate Americans

The Egyptian military reinforced parts of the capital on Sunday with tanks, jets and helicopters as tens of thousands of protesters flooded central Cairo for the sixth day, defying yet again government orders of a nationwide curfew.

In a stunning collapse of authority, most police have withdrawn from major cities, and soldiers fired shots into the air in an effort to control the crowds, seized by growing fears of lawlessness and buoyed by euphoria that three decades of President Hosni Mubarak’s rule may be coming to an end.

Thousands of inmates poured out of four prisons and the United States said it was organizing flights to evacuate its citizens Sunday.

The American Embassy, which urged all Americans in Egypt to “consider leaving as soon as they can safely do so,” underlined a deep sense of pessimism among Egypt’s allies over Mr. Mubarak’s fate, as the uprising against his rule entered a sixth day.

Several hours after nightfall, Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian opposition figure and Nobel prize winner, arrived the square. “What we have begun, we cannot go back,” he said, news agencies reported.

“It is loud and clear from everybody in Egypt that Mubarak has to leave today,” he said in an interview on CNN. He said Mr. Mubarak’s departure should be followed by a transition to a national unity government and “all the measures set in place for a free and fair election.”

Note: The NYT headline of "U.S. to Evacuate Americans From Egypt" does not match the story. It appears, the story will follow. Here is a link to the latest New York Times Headlines.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Blinking Light Changing Color South Eastern Oneida County Northern Wisconsin

Date: January 30, 2011

Time: 12:45 a.m.

There is something in the sky as I am writing this. I am in far south eastern Oneida county in northern Wisconsin, the object is a blinking light seeming to change colors, it is fairly low in the sky in a west, southwest direction from me. It is staying in the same place, but if I look at it long enough it appears to dart around a small area then stay still again. This could be merely an optical illusion from staring at it in the dark though I suppose.

Vike Factor Note: The light the witness is looking at sounds like it is a star.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com//

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Uni Watch All-Star Look

It's that magical time of year when hockey gets back to its purest form and... alright, who am I kidding? I was asked by Phil Hecken to give some thoughts on the NHL All-Star Game jerseys for the incomparable Uni Watch Blog today, and I am replaying the article here. As you know, the NHL All-Star Game goes today, and there's something that has me excited about the game, but a number of things that do not. The NHL All-Star Fantasy Draft took place on Friday night, and we'll take a look at some of the more garish NHL All-Star Game jersey designs in a Jim Vilk-style "3+1 view". I'll also look back on a few of my favorite images from past All-Star Games. Let's get this review underway using the Paul Lukas "is it good or is it stupid" test!

The NHL decided to allow Reebok to push the envelope in their designs this year for the two teams, and I'm sorry to say that I don't like the look the NHL chose. There's nothing good about random striping that cuts off at the seam of the sleeve and then randomly begins on the back of the sleeve and end at the elbow on the front. Honestly, what is the point of these random lines? If this is some new gradient technology that Reebok has come up with, we've been there, done that, moved on. Stop trying to add flair – it just doesn't work! Random lines that do nothing for the aesthetics of the uniform are just dumb. STUPID.

Have you actually looked at the front of the jerseys? There's just way too much stuff on the front with the NHL All-Star shield logo, the number below the collar, the captaincy designation, and the NHL shield logo. Does anyone actually look at these jerseys before signing off on them? Are there no prototypes made? The easiest solution is to remove the “feature” that the NHL apparently insists on having on the front – the number. The jersey would be much less busy, and would look fairly good if you overlook the random lines all over the sleeves. However, that number can't be overlooked. STUPID.

The font used on the jersey for names and numbers is legible, so that's a plus, but we run into a problem with the numbers on the back of Team Lidstrom's jerseys. Again, what's with the random lines? Do we really need these lines on the numbers? The rear numbers clearly do not match up with the sleeve and chest numbers as it appears those numbers don’t have lines, so this might be the first time in NHL history where back numbers don’t jive with TV numbers. So that automatically makes this STUPID.

Now you’re probably saying, “Teebz, you’re such a downer,” due to my three “stupid” ratings in a row. There are, however, some things I do like about the NHL All-Star jerseys.

For starters, I love the colour used by the teams. Have you noticed that the black on these jerseys is as minimal as can be? The blue is bold, and the home team is wearing white! While I’m not completely sold on the shade of red being used, the game should look good and the fans, for the first time in a long time, will be able to cheer on the good guys in white! GREAT!

I'm guessing that Team Staal will be skating left-to-right tomorrow because the NHL All-Star Game logo is on mirrored shoulders for the two teams. I get that the NHL wants the logo showing in promotional pictures during the ceremonial face-off and stuff, but will anyone not know that this is the NHL All-Star Game? I can’t call it dumb because it serves a purpose, but when you combine that with the individual team logo of each player on the opposite shoulder, this one becomes a PUSH.

Overall, not the worst-looking All-Star Game in history (we'll see those in a second), but the NHL really needs to go back to their star design or a much more simplified design. The KISS rule always seems to work best.

Teebz's All-Star 3+1

Not much needs to be said here, but these are certainly the worst looks seen at the NHL All-Star Games over the years. The "+1" will be my favorite NHL All-Star Game look of all-time. Enjoy!

3. 1982 NHL All-Star Game – Wales Conference vs. Campbell Conference. I like the colours, but how many stars do you need on a jersey?

2. 2003 NHL All-Star Game – Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference. The Western Conference jersey looks good in colour, but the TV numbers on the front left hip for these teams are useless. The Eastern Conference jersey looks like a ripoff of the Mighty Ducks' jersey. Not a fan of these jerseys. They just don't say "all-star".

1. 2000 NHL All-Star Game – North America vs. World. Count the number of different jerseys you see. If you see four different jerseys, you're right. The goaltenders for each team wore jerseys that were different from their teammates. Aren't uniforms supposed to be, y'know, uniform? This is the dumbest idea seen at an NHL All-Star Game yet.

+1. 1992 NHL All-Star Game – Wales Conference vs. Campbell Conference. There is something to behold about the 1992 NHL All-Star Game: the colour, the throwback designs, and the overall aesthetic. These uniforms are absolutely gorgeous, and some NHL team should look at bringing a design like this to life.

There are also a number of pictures that make the NHL All-Star Game special. These are some that I've liked for various reasons.

• There's something to be said when you see NHL stars not giving out clichés for a living and just being themselves. That's Grace Doan hugging her dad, Shane, at the 2009 NHL All-Star Game Skill Competition.
• PK Subban caused himself a little uniform controversy when he skated out in Jeff Skinner's Carolina Hurricanes uniform. Subban definitely won the crowd over with that move at this year's Skills Competition.
• Terence Kearns informed me that he likes when the players wear their gloves from their normal teams in contrast with the NHL All-Star jerseys. Here are Vyacheslav Fetisov, Steve Yzerman, and Brendan Shanahan doing just that at the 1997 NHL All-Star Game.
• Everyone knows Bobby Orr wore #4, but the 1968 NHL All-Star Game saw Bobby dona new number as he skated in the game wearing #5!

That's all for today! Enjoy the NHL All-Star Game from Raleigh, North Carolina!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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Boomerang Shaped UFO Spotted Over Oxford Mississippi

Date: January 30, 2011
Time: 1:10 a.m.

Location of Sighting: Oxford Mississippi.
Number of witnesses: 2
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Boomerang.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: We were watching the stars in a field when my friend said that she saw some strange boomerang-shaped object moving slowly across the sky. I couldn't see it unfortunately. The first one, according to my friend, "looked like a haze, with no distinct lights, just a boomerang-shaped haze moving across the sky that was lighter than the rest of the sky."

Ten minutes later, she pointed it out again, as it was heading in the opposite direction. I definitely saw this one. It was boomerang shaped and had lights forming a V. When it reached the horizon, it looked like it changed direction, and it was as if the lights changed from (arrow shaped), moving out of sight beyond the tree-line.

It was awesome!

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

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Oil ETF Call Trades Soar to Record, Crude Futures Back Near Highs; What Will Next Week Bring?

In light of firebombings, riots, and anarchy in Egypt, coupled with social unrest in Yemen, Jordan, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia, call options of those betting on higher oil prices soared to seven times normal activity on Friday.

This weekend we saw the closing of Egyptian banks and the announced closing of Egyptian stock markets on Monday. However, it is hard to know what will happen next week.

To help understanding the possibilities, please consider this analysis of Friday's crude action.

Bloomberg reports Oil ETF Call Trades Soar to Record Amid Egypt Unrest

Trading of bullish options on an exchange-traded fund tracking crude futures soared to a record as oil surged the most since September 2009 after unrest in Egypt raised concern that protests would spread to major oil- producing parts of the Middle East.

Almost 242,000 calls to buy the U.S. Oil Fund changed hands today, seven times the four-week average and almost five times the number of puts to sell. The most-traded contracts were the February $38 calls, which rose sixfold to 48 cents. The ETF gained 4.6 percent to $37.58.

“Bullish players are binging on call options across several expiries,” Caitlin Duffy, an equity-options analyst at Greenwich, Connecticut-based Interactive Brokers Group Inc., wrote in a report. “The massive upswing in demand for the contracts helped lift the fund’s overall reading of options implied volatility.”

Oil for March delivery increased $3.70 to settle at $89.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract has risen 0.3 percent this week. Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 1.36 million contracts as of 3:18 p.m. in New York. That’s the highest level since April 13, when volume for both electronic and floor trading reached a record 1.42 million barrels on the Nymex.

Volume totaled 1.01 million contracts yesterday, 50 percent above the average of the past three months. Open interest was 1.52 million contracts.

Crude 15 Minute Chart



click on chart for sharper image

Hedging Plays Push Crude Prices Higher

I was watching crude futures Friday morning (3:00AM Central) and the futures were essentially flat. Friday morning, however, as oil future call buying began, followed by equity call buying on OIL ETFs, oil shot up nearly $4.

What happened is options sellers (the market makers on the other side of those trades), cannot risk being naked short those oil calls and had to hedge by buying futures.

To hedge those short calls, the market makers bought crude futures. This delta hedging activity drove up the price of oil this morning as everyone plowed into the "oil might go to the moon" trade.

No one wanted to be naked short over the weekend. (In a similar fashion, I do not believe JPM is naked short silver futures either, but I wish they would come out and prove it).

If nothing happens over the weekend (which so far appears to be a disproved idea already), oil futures could easily sink next week as the trade unwinds. On the other hand, should unrest spring up in Iran or expand in Saudi Arabia crude prices could soar.

Given that a collapse of the Egyptian government seems likely, and unrest in other areas picking up, if crude prices cannot break north here, then look out below. A short or intermediate-term top is likely in.

For more on the crisis in Egypt, please see ...

Egyptian Police Disappear in Widespread Chaos, Vigilantes Defend Homes; Egypt Video With a Message "We Will Never be Silenced!"

Egypt Closes Banks, Stock Market; Protests Spread to Saudi Arabia, Jordan; Saudi King Backs Mubarak; Reflections on Misguided US Policy

Mubarak's Acts of Cowardice; Obama Calls Mubarak for 30-Minutes; Cell Service, Internet Total Shutdown; Anarchy in Cairo; How Long can Mubarak Last?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Sightings.com UFO Newsletter Issue #3

Date Of Release: January 29, 2011

To join the free Yahoo Sightings.com UFO Newsletter, http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/Sightings_com/ (Please note: To receive the Newsletter you have to get it through Yahoo Groups)

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/ and the Jeff Rense radio program http://www.rense.com/. The Vike Factor UFO Blog http://the-v-factor-paranormal.blogspot.com/

Brian Vike can be heard on Rense Radio on the third Friday in each month with special guests.


Enormous Cylindrical UFO Swoops Over Witnesses Car Over Montague New Jersey

Date: 1985
Time: 8:30 p.m.

Location of Sighting: Clove Road, Montague New Jersey.
Number of witnesses: 2
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Round.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: My mother and father were on their way home from the Clubhouse at High Point Country Club. They turned left out of the Country Club and headed toward route 206. As they passed Dr. Coburn's office, the local vet, they sited a round cylindrical enormous object over the substation on Robin Hill Road.

My parents are the farthest from UFO believers, that they could not believe their eyes and no sooner than saying "Hun", do you see what I am seeing, the UFO quietly swooped over their car and stayed there for what they thought was an eternity, then it swooped off without a sound.

There a many, many sightings in Montage, NJ and Milford PA. It is well known in the area for those that wish to discuss. My parents kept this a secret for many years and finally told us.

To view the Sightings.com UFO Newsletter on a special page, please follow this link and bookmark: http://sightings-com-ufo-newsletter.blogspot.com/

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

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Domed UFO With Colored Lights Around It Over Costa Mesa California

Date: January 28, 2011
Time: 1:00 a.m.

Location of Sighting: Costa Mesa California.
Number of witnesses: 1
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Circular.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: I usually see lots of aircraft pass by my window, when I saw a light. I thought it wasn’t any different. But, all of a sudden, I noticed that the lights were moving in a circular rotation and had many flashing lights. Spooked the hell out of me.

Additional Information:

About the object I saw: It was a domed saucer, the top dome was bigger than the bottom. The dome shape was not ridiculously domed, but still visible. Where the two domes meet, there was a band of circular lights that seemed to go all the way around in a circle -0-0-0-0-0- (like that) and were red and yellow and another color, blue or green.

I have seen all different types of aircraft fly by my home, but that was the first time I saw something like that. It seemed to meet by the 405 and 73 freeway. I know there's an airport close by and a military base, but I know it wasn't something normal.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

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Egyptian Police Disappear in Widespread Chaos, Vigilantes Defend Homes; Egypt Video With a Message "We Will Never be Silenced!"

Here is another video to consider, with video credit to Tamer Shaaban. It has close to 400,000 views when I saw it.

I like one protester's message in the video ... "We will not be silenced. Whether you are a Christian, whether you are a Muslim, whether you are an atheist, you will demand your goddamn rights, and we will have our rights one way or the other! We will never be silenced!



If the embed above does not play, here is a link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI&sns=fb

Egyptian Police Disappear in Widespread Chaos, Looting Spreads,Vigilantes Defend Homes

Please consider Egypt vigilantes defend homes as police disappear

Egyptians armed with guns, sticks, and blades have formed vigilante groups to defend their homes from looters after police disappeared from the streets following days of violent protests.

Banks, junctions and important buildings previously guarded by the police and state security were left abandoned Saturday and civilians have quickly stepped in to fill the void.

"There are no police to be found anywhere," said Ghadeer, 23, from an upscale neighborhood. "Doormen and young boys from their neighborhoods are standing outside holding sticks, razors and other weapons to prevent people from coming in."

Police withdrew from the streets when the army was sent in to take over security in Cairo. Witnesses have since seen mobs storming supermarkets, commercial centers, banks, private property and government buildings in Cairo and elsewhere.

Egyptians have called for army intervention to bring back law and order. Saturday, many protesters changed: "No to plundering and no to destruction.

Dozens of shops across Egypt have painted display windows white to hide contents and discourage looting. A cash machine was broken in an upscale neighborhood, witnesses said.

"They are letting Egypt burn to the ground," said Inas Shafik, 35.

Several government buildings were set ablaze during days of protests against President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. They were often left to burn without the intervention of authorities.

Islamic leaders have in the meantime called on people to join vigilante groups to protect their homes themselves. Yet, scenes of looting appeared to spread from upscale parts of Cairo to downtown and poorer areas as well.

Some 700 prisoners escaped in Fayoum, south of Cairo, and killed a senior police officer, sources said. Another senior police officer was also kidnapped in Damietta, a witness said.

"They are torching down the prisons. Our lives and property are at risk. Get out of the way," one shopper shouted, echoing the anxieties of many as they raced to stock up at supermarkets.

Others stayed penned inside their homes for fear of what they said were marauding gangs in some areas. Friday, looters broke into the Egyptian Museum -- home to the world's greatest collection of Pharaonic treasures -- and destroyed two pharaonic mummies, said Zahi Hawass, Egypt's top archaeologist.

In walled-off estates on the outskirts of Cairo, private security locked down gates and refused to let people in.

Ghadeer said: "The looters want to plunder and the government is washing its hands clean of any responsibility."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Egypt Closes Banks, Stock Market; Protests Spread to Saudi Arabia, Jordan; Saudi King Backs Mubarak; Reflections on Misguided US Policy

One sure way to get people fired up is to shut down the stock market and all the banks, thereby denying citizens access to their money. Yet, that is exactly the desperate course of action chosen by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Protests have now spread to Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. So far however, the protests in Saudi Arabia are of a peaceful nature, mostly related to government response to flooding. Recent history suggests that may change at any moment into something far more significant.

In a move that can easily backfire, the Saudi king defended Mubarak and offered support.

Meanwhile, in Jordan, the pace of protests have now picked up as opposition supporters have held rallies in Amman and called for the resignation of Jordan's prime minister.

Egyptian Bourse, Banks to Close

Bloomberg reports Egyptian Bourse, Banks to Close Tomorrow on Unrest

The Egyptian bourse will be closed tomorrow after thousands of protestors congregated in central Cairo for a fifth day and President Hosni Mubarak ignored demands to resign. Banks will also be shut, State TV said.

“No one expected this to take place and at such a fast sequence of events,” said Mohamed Radwan, head of international sales at Cairo-based Pharos Holding for Financial Investment. "The critical time frame for the market is from now until the implementation of economic and democratic reforms demanded by the people."

Soldiers, backed by armored carriers and tanks, are guarding banks and government buildings in the capital after acts of looting and theft yesterday. Forty people were killed and another 1,100 people were injured yesterday and today in the clashes that have swept major cities including Cairo, according to the Egyptian Health Ministry. The government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif resigned today at Mubarak’s request.

Domino Effect

Bloomberg reports Saudi Stocks Decline Most Since May as Egyptians Defy Curfew

Saudi Arabian shares retreated the most since May on concern political unrest could spread in the Middle East after Egyptian protesters clashed with police and the North African country’s president refused to resign.

The Tadawul All Share Index tumbled 6.4 percent, the most since May 25, to 6,267.22 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Riyadh. All but one of the 146 shares fell. Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest petrochemical maker, slumped 7.5 percent. Savola Azizia United Co., a food producer with subsidiaries in Egypt, dropped 10 percent, the maximum fluctuation allowed in a single trading session.

“There is a lot of worry looming among investors that we’re going to see a domino effect across the region,” said Amro Halwani, a trader at Shuaa Capital PSC in Riyadh. “That is pushing investors away from equities and straight into cash. It is panic selling across the board.”

Mubarak appoints leaders as protests rage

MarketWatch reports Mubarak appoints leaders as protests rage

Mubarak appointed his intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, vice president and named former civil aviation minister Ahmed Shafik prime minister. Shafik was charged with setting up a new government.

The appointment of the 74-year-old Suleiman may signal that Mubarak won’t run again in presidential elections in September. But the appointments of Suleiman and Shafik didn’t slow protestors’ demands for Mubarak’s resignation or immediately satisfy the Obama administration.

“The Egyptian government can’t reshuffle the deck and then stand pat,” U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley wrote Saturday on Twitter. “President Mubarak’s words pledging reform must be followed by action.”

Protests Call for Ouster of Jordanian Prime Minister

Anti-government action in Jordan picked up and Jordanian Protesters Say Prime Minister Must Go

Taking their cue from Tunisia and Egypt, an estimated 3,000 Jordanians marched through the streets after Friday prayers, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai and calling for political and economic reforms.

They warned corrupt Arab leaders would face the same fate as ousted Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

Peaceful protests were also held in the cities of Irbid, Karak, Maan, and Diban, AFP reported. Jordan has a population of six million, 70 percent of whom under the age of 30. Official unemployment is running at about 14 percent, but other estimates put joblessness at 30 percent.

The government says it is pumping around $500 million into the economy to improve the people's standard of living.

Peaceful Protests in Saudi Arabia

In Saudi Arabia, Dozens of protesters arrested in Jeddah

Dozens of protesters have been arrested in Saudi Arabia's second biggest city after they protested against the weaknesses of infrastructure of Jeddah.

The protests were triggered on Friday after floods swept through the city, killing at least four people, and raising fears of a repeat of the deadly 2009 deluge, in which more than 120 people lost their lives.

On Wednesday, torrential rains caused flooding that swept away cars and downed electric lines in Jeddah.

The oil-rich kingdom lacks the basic necessary systems and structures to drain water out of the residential areas during a heavy rainfall.

Given infrastructure is this bad, I have a simple question: What the hell is Saudi Arabia doing with all the oil money it receives?

I also have an answer: It is going into the pockets of billionaire sheiks who have more money than they possibly know what to do with. The same could be said for multi-billionaires everywhere.

Saudi Protest Video




Saudi king vows support for Mubarak

Inquiring minds are likely pondering the wisdom of this action: Saudi king vows support for Mubarak

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah ensures Mohamed Hosni Mubarak of his support amid nationwide protests against the Egyptian president's three-decade-long rule.

In a Saturday telephone conversation with Mubarak, Abdullah Ibn Abdulaziz Al Saud described the popular movements as "tampering with Egypt's security and stability in the name of freedom of expression,” AFP reported.

The Saudi king branded the protesters as "intruders" and said, “Saudi Arabia stands with all its power with the government and people of Egypt."

The comments came after a Human Rights Watch report lambasted Riyadh earlier in the week for mistreatment of women, foreign labor and the Kingdom's Shia minority.

There is widespread approval among Arabs for the ouster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Offering support to someone who is clearly despised does not seem like a prudent move to me.

Reflections on Decades of Misguided US Policy

President Obama is attempting to play this from both sides as best he can. For more details on his phone conversations with Mubarak, please consider

1. Mubarak's Acts of Cowardice; Obama Calls Mubarak for 30-Minutes; Cell Service, Internet Total Shutdown; Anarchy in Cairo; How Long can Mubarak Last?


2. Egypt Calls in Army, Imposes Curfew; Mubarak Orders Ministers to Resign; US Puts Egypt Aid Under Review; Will the US Get this one Right?

It's important to note that I am not talking about mistakes in current US policy but rather misguided policy decisions over the decades.

• We supported a corrupt Shah of Iran and look at the results.
• We supported Iraq on the hopelessly flawed theory "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." There are pictures of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Hussein.
• We gave chemical weapons to Iraq.
• Our intelligence do not see the takeover of the US embassy in Iran coming.
• Our CIA trained Bin Laden to fight Russia in Afghanistan. Now we are hunting Bin Laden and fighting in Afghanistan.
• We have wasted trillion of dollars in both Iraq and Afghanistan and all we have to show for it is more enemies.

Contrast that that with our actions in Tunisia. We did not spend a dime, nor did our intelligence efforts even see it coming. Yet, in Tunisia, a protest by the people overthrew overthrew Tunisian strongman Zine el Abidine ben Ali.

Wall of Fear Comes Down

The La Times reports Fearless protesters challenge regimes around Middle East

Reporting from Tunis, Tunisia — A wall of fear has come down.

All across the Arab world, people living under the thumb of repressive leaders are rising up against the rulers who once seemed omnipotent.

They are using the Internet to network and spread the word. They are watching themselves on satellite television. They are drawing strength from the hyperactive energy of the frustrated young people dismissed and discarded by their governments.

It is a contagious spirit.

"It's like a transition moment in the Arab world," said Mohammad Abou Rouman, a political researcher at the University of Jordan, in Amman, where protests erupted Friday. "It's the influence of the Tunisian domino, and it will not stop. It will go to other Arab states."

The uprisings are having a ricochet effect across the Arab world. People are watching the events unfolding on television and Facebook and identifying with the people in the streets.

"I was with my friends on Facebook, and we encouraged each other," said Dali ben Salem, a 25-year-old intern in pharmacy in Tunis. "The solidarity helped me to face the fear."

And whether or not Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak manages to survive what one analyst called a political "tsunami" that is enveloping the Arab world, things will never return to normal, analysts said.

War of the Future

How much money did the US spend on misguided missile programs and misguided missile defense systems, only to be defeated by a group of hijackers with razor blades? Is there more of a threat from a suitcase bomb or a missile?

How much money do we waste keeping troops in 140 countries where they are mostly not wanted?

Please remember Bin Laden's primary objection to the US was that US troops were on sacred Arab soil. So why do we do it? What has it brought us but misery?

We have caused countless trillions of dollars of destruction in Iraq, and in Afghanistan. Sadly, the war in Afghanistan is no more winnable than the War in Vietnam.

Quiet revolutions by the people are the war of the future, and the only kind of war that makes any sense.

Please note that Tunisia did not cost US taxpayers a dime. We should not have wasted a dime to get rid of Hussein either. Iraq was not a threat to the US. Simply put, it was a matter for the Iraqi people to settle, not us.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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