Current Decade of Job Losses vs. Great Depression; How Did Quasi-Public Jobs Fare? Who is Whining?

It may surprise you to learn that job losses in the most recent decade ending February 2011 are reasonably comparable to the job losses from 1929-1939. Moreover, if we exclude government and "quasi- government" jobs, the latest decade is the worse ever, by far.

Please consider A Decade of Labor Market Pain by Mike Mandel.

In February 2001, nonfarm payrolls hit their business cycle peak of 132.5 million. Ten years later, the latest data pegs February 2011 payrolls at 130.5 million, a 1.5% decline. To put this in perspective, the ten-year period of the Great Depression, 1929-39 saw a 2.3% decline in nonfarm employment, roughly the same magnitude.

But even that 1.5% understates the extent of the pain for most of the workforce. I divide the economy into two parts. On the one side are the combined public and quasi-public sectors, and on the other side is the rest of the economy. Public, of course, refers to government employees. ‘Quasi-public’, a term I just invented, includes the nominal private-sector education, healthcare, and social assistance industries. I call them ’quasi-public’ because these industries depend very heavily on government funding. For example, social assistance includes ‘child and youth services’ and ‘services for the elderly and disabled’, which are often provided under government contract.

The chart below shows employment growth in the public/quasi-public sector, compared to employment growth in the rest of the economy, with February 2001 set to 100. We can see that public/quasi-public employment rose steadily over the past ten years, and is now up 16%. By comparison, the rest of the private sector is down 8% in jobs over the past 10 years.

Once again, we look at the Great Depression for an analogy. From 1929 to 1939, government employment rose by about 30%. If we back that out, then private sector non-ag jobs fell by 6% over the Depression decade. That compares to the contemporary 8% decline in private non-ag non-quasi-public jobs since 2001. So by this measure, the past 10 years have been worse for the labor market than the decade of the Great Depression.

The first chart below is from the BLS, the second chart below is from Mandel.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted Total

The above chart shows the 1.5% drop between February 2001 and February 2011. Note that nonfarm employment is below where it was 11 years ago dating back to February 2000.

The next chart is the one Mandel created.

Public and Quasi-Public Jobs vs. Everything Else



Please see Mandel's article for a state-by-state breakdown.

Who is Doing all the Whining?

Who is doing all the whining and all the pissing and moaning? The answer of course is those who fared the best in the last decade: the police and fire unions, the teachers' unions, transit unions, and public unions in general.

Many in private sector fields have been hammered silly with rapidly rising healthcare costs and lower paychecks (assuming they have a job at all). Meanwhile those with the most benefits and those who have suffered the least are the ones unjustifiably bitching to high heavens about how unfairly they are being treated.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

HOW SAD IS THIS:

This posting contains an audio. To hear it properly please mute the sound on the "Ave Maria" music widget located on the right hand side of this page.

HOW SAD IS THIS:

Gag limit

I believe there's a limit to the personal attacks that Canadians will tolerate.
And the Conservatives have now passed it.
Again.

UFO Appears Above Jet Airliner Downey California (Pictures)

Date: March 16, 2011

Time: 3:20 p.m.

Number of witnesses: 1
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Disc (probably)

Full Description of Event/Sighting: Hello, I was out taking a walk during my break at work, and as I am an avid sky watcher (for cloud photos) I was looking up as usual.

I noticed the object flying across my field of vision fairly slowly, like a helicopter. In fact, that's what I thought it was at first. It did look rather unusually round, but I attributed it to distance and my bad eyesight.

Anyway, it finally occurred to me to snap a few quick shots just to settle my mind. I didn't view it until the next evening, as I really didn't think it was anything truly unusual.

The last of 3 shots should be particularly useful for comparison, as it is seen just above an airliner. Please check out the photos at my blog: http://xenolithic.blogspot.com/2011/03/genuine-ufo-sighting.html.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

Two Objects Split Into 5 Lights Over Laveen Arizona

Date: March 18, 2011

Time: 7:00 p.m.

Number of witnesses: 3
Number of Objects: 2 (5 bits)
Shape of Objects: Circle.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: I was in in back yard facing the northwest when I saw two object falling. They looked like falling stars, but close. They then slowed down, almost stopped when they split in to four, to five smaller lights and stood still about 45 seconds and eventually they fell behind the houses.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

Alliance for Main Street (Walmart and Target) Press Amazon on Taxes; In Praise of Amazon

Mom and pop bookstores and other retailers have had enough. They cry foul on Amazon for not collecting state sales taxes. Moreover, Walmart and Target have now entered the battle and have sided with mom and pop against purported evil-doers like Amazon that have an unfair advantage.

The Wall Street Journal reports Retailers Push Amazon on Taxes

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and other large retailers are ratcheting up a political campaign to force Amazon.com Inc. to collect sales taxes, sensing opportunity in the budget crises gripping statehouses nationwide.

The big-box stores are backing a coalition called the Alliance for Main Street Fairness, which is leading efforts to change sales-tax laws in more than a dozen states including Texas and California.

Until now, the group has been largely associated with mom-and-pop stores, spotlighting stories of small toy shops and booksellers who argue Internet merchants that aren't legally required to collect sales taxes enjoy an unfair advantage with shoppers.

"The rules today don't allow brick-and-mortar retailers to compete evenly with online retailers, and that needs to be addressed," said Raul Vazquez, Wal-Mart's executive vice president of global e-commerce.

Amazon has feverishly fought efforts to compel it to collect sales taxes. The Seattle-based online retailer says it complies with the law. Under a 1992 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, only merchants who have a physical presence, such as stores, in a state have to collect sales taxes. Amazon currently gathers those taxes in just five states: Kansas, Kentucky, North Dakota, its home base of Washington, and New York.

U.S. Sens. Richard Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, and Mike Enzi, a Wyoming Republican, are considering more direct legislation to force online retailers to collect sales taxes, people familiar with the matter said.

Hours after Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat, signed the Internet sales-tax law last week, Amazon cut ties with its roughly 9,000 Illinois affiliates to avoid collection there. Amazon took similar actions in Hawaii, North Carolina and Rhode Island after those states passed legislation similar to the New York law, which Amazon is challenging in court.

Wal-Mart, Sears and other store chains publicly offered to work with the Amazon affiliates. A group representing the affiliates estimates they paid $18 million to Illinois in the form of income taxes, and are likely to see that amount drop by 25% to 30% this year.

Targeting affiliates is just one of the tactics retailers are supporting to pressure Amazon.

In states including Texas and Arkansas, store chains are also backing legislation that seeks to make clear that Amazon must collect sales taxes if it controls in-state warehouses through related companies.

Amazon last month said it would close a Texas distribution center amid a tax dispute with Republican State Comptroller Susan Combs, who contends that Amazon owes $269 million in uncollected sales tax because of the facility's physical presence in the state.

"Amazon is choosing to be a bully" by dropping affiliates instead of collecting taxes, said California Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, a Democrat who is carrying legislation supported by Wal-Mart and other retail chains, similar to what became law in New York and Illinois.

I Commend Amazon

I commend Amazon. The real bullies are the states raping taxpayers and handing money over to pubic unions for untenable pension benefits.

Regardless of how you feel about that statement, mom and pop stores are for the most part dead. Ironically, most blame stores like Walmart, Target, and Amazon.

However, If you want to blame someone, blame consumers. They are the ones shopping at Walmart, hoping to save a buck. They are the ones using a Kindle or an iPad instead of buying a book. They are the ones shopping at Amazon.

I happen to think Walmart is a godsend. The country needs lower prices. Walmart provides them. If you disagree, you are free to shop elsewhere. For the record, I generally shop elsewhere, but my vote is meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I am outvoted by Walmart lovers but I am with the Amazon lovers.

Affiliates Dropped, Including Me

If anyone is entitled to speak out as to who is the bully is, then I am. Every month I get an affiliate check from Amazon. Rather I used to.

Here are my last three checks.

$214.99
$356.47
$246.62

The average of those is $818.08 or $3272.32 annually. Thus, I expect this move by Amazon will cost me somewhere between $3,000 and $4000 a year.

Do I feel bullied? Yes, I do, but not by Amazon. I feel bullied by California Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner and by Illinois Governor Pat Quinn.

Am I going to stop linking to Amazon? No I am not, unless Amazon service degrades or some other issue props up.

Meanwhile, I will be out $3000 to $4000 annually and Illinois will be out taxes on that amount (multiplied by everyone who feels the same as I do). Thus, instead of Illinois getting any benefit from my affiliation with Amazon, the money will all go to Amazon because I am still going to promote them unless and until I have a reason not to.

Amazon provides excellent service to me (I use them all the time) and I assume they provide excellent service to everyone who orders from my book list on the left as well. That is what matters to me, not $3,000.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Qaddafi Pledges "Long War"; Photographs of the Wreckage; Usurpation of Legislative Power

Once again the New York Times leads the way with excellent coverage of happenings in the Mideast and Africa. Please consider Qaddafi Pledges ‘Long War’ as Allies Pursue Air Assault on Libya

A day after American and European forces began a broad campaign of strikes against the government of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the Libyan leader delivered a fresh and defiant tirade on Sunday, pledging retaliation and saying his forces would fight a long war to victory.

He was speaking in a telephone call to state television, which, apparently for security reasons, did not disclose his whereabouts. The Libyan leader has not been seen in public since the United States and European countries unleashed warplanes and missiles in a military intervention on a scale unparalleled in the Arab world since the Iraq war. On Sunday, American B-2 stealth bombers were reported to have struck a major Libyan airfield.

In a first assessment from Washington, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the first day of “operations yesterday went very well,” news reports said. Speaking to NBC’s "Meet the Press," he said a no-flight zone over Libya to ground Colonel Qaddafi’s warplanes — a prime goal of the attacks — was “effectively” in place and that a loyalist advance on the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi had been halted.

Despite those major setbacks, Colonel Qaddafi said his forces on the ground would win in the end. And he repeated an assertion made on Saturday that he had opened military depots to his supporters and the Libyan people were now fully armed. Instead of an image of the Libyan leader, state television showed a statue of a golden fist clutching a crumpled American fighter plane, a monument to an American strike on his compound in 1986.

Speaking of a “long war,” Colonel Qaddafi said: “We will not leave our land and we will liberate it.”

In a Field of Flowers, the Wreckage of War in Libya

Please consider In a Field of Flowers, the Wreckage of War in Libya.

Rebel fighters watched burning vehicles belonging to loyalist forces after an air`strike near Benghazi on Sunday. Image by Goran Tomasevic/Reuters

The attack seemed to have come out of clear skies onto a field of wildflowers.

Littered across the landscape, some 30 miles south of Benghazi, the detritus of the allied airstrikes on Saturday and Sunday morning offered a panorama of destruction: tanks, charred and battered, their turrets blasted clean off, one with a body still caught in its remnants; a small Toyota truck with its roof torn away; a tank transporter still on fire. But it did not end there.

For miles leading south, the roadsides were littered with burned trucks and burned civilian cars. In some places battle tanks had simply been abandoned, intact, as their crews fled. One thing, though, seemed evident: the units closest to Benghazi seemed to have been hit with their cannons and machine guns still pointing toward the rebel capital.

To the south, though, many had been hit as they headed away from the city in a headlong dash for escape on the long road leading to a distant Tripoli.

“They were retreating,” said Col. Abdullah al-Shafi, an officer in the rebel forces, which had clamored desperately for the allied air help that arrived on Saturday. “Soldiers had taken civilians’ cars and fled. They were ditching their fatigues.”

“This is all France,” a rebel fighter, Tahir Sassi, told a Reuters correspondent as he surveyed the devastation on Sunday. “Today we came through and saw the road open.”

The monuments to the loyalists’ last maneuver were not the victory so often trumpeted in their propaganda. Empty ammunition boxes lay discarded among the flowers. Armored personnel carriers still smoldered alongside wrecked rocket-launchers. Craters pitted the fields, as if there had been multiple strikes, apparently by the pilots of the French warplanes that took credit for firing the first shots in the international, American-backed effort to contain Colonel Qaddafi’s forces.

There is much more information in the above articles that inquiring minds may wish to read.

Images of War

Here are a few images from Detritus of War, an excellent slideshow series of 10 images on the allied attack.



A bomb from an allied aircraft exploded among vehicles belonging to forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi during an airstrike Sunday on the highway outside of Benghazi. Credit: Goran Tomasevic/Reuters



The air strikes seem to have halted the loyalist advance on the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi. Rebel fighters celebrated along the highway. Credit: Goran Tomasevic/Reuters



A rebel supporter waved the rebellion flag atop a burned tank. Credit: Patrick Baz/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Usurpation of Legislative Power

However just this course of action may be, bombing airfields in another country is clearly an act of war. However, only Congress has the power to declare war. For a discussion please consider Declaration of war by the United States

Missing Pieces

What makes this war different from President George W. Bush's war in Iraq is an outright request for action from the Arab League, a buy-in from the UN Security council, a buy-in from neighboring countries, and a request from Great Britain and France.

It is near-miraculous to get a buy-in from Russia and China on this. Five Nations abstained but neither Russia nor China vetoed the action.

However, where where was the debate in the US? How are we going to pay for this? How long will it last? How much can we spend?

Questions abound.

We were not attacked and there was clearly enough time for the president and Hillary Clinton to make the case to Congress and the citizens of the United States.

Slowly but surely, powers granted Congress in the constitution have been steadily usurped by the executive branch. This sad state of affairs applies to Republican and Democratic president alike.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Ben Bernnake Ponders Food Prices

It's been a while since my last Sunday Funnies. Here is a timely submission from reader Bill regarding Ben Bernanke, bank bailouts, and food prices.



If you wish to contribute, please do so. The cartoon must be yours, not something you saw elsewhere.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

the arabist: five questions few are asking about libya

Yippee, a no-fly zone, because it's much better for the West to kill Libyans than for Gaddafi to do it! Hey, those crazy Arabs can't liberate themselves, you know. They need our help. Just ask the Iraqis! Those who have survived, anyway.

Some excellent analysis by The Arabist: 5 questions few are asking about Libya.

Thanks to Hysperia for the Arabist post.

Also:

Stop the War Coalition (UK): The real reasons behind the United Nations' Libya vote:

A new war has been declared in the Middle East. With the bloody and failing occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan still in place, the USA, Britain and France are now committed to an escalating armed intervention in Libya.

Dissident Voice: Mission Creep and Slippery Slopes, Bombs Away Over Libya

malalai joya denied entry to u.s.: four things u.s. readers can do to help

As you may know, Afghan writer and activist Malalai Joya has been denied entry to the US. Joya opposes the Western occupation of her country, and with a clear majority of USians now opposing the war in Afghanistan, those who profit from the occupation want to prevent her injecting public opinion with facts and motivation.

I saw Joya speak - report here and here - and I know the peace movement in the United States needs her.

When Immigration Minister Jason Kenney's flunky stupidly declared former UK MP George Galloway "inadmissible" to Canada, the ensuing publicity for Galloway's tour became Jason Kenney's nightmare. Eventually that nightmare ended up in court, and Galloway is now a regular guest of peace activists in Canada. I hope the US peace movement will get behind Joya's visit in a similar way. [For details on that, click on the wmtc category "george galloway in canada".]

United for Peace and Justice, the umbrella coalition of 1,400 US anti-war groups, has four ways you can help.

1. Have your elected representatives sign onto a letter urging the US Embassy to reconsider their decision.

Six Congresspeople and three Senators have sent such a letter, which is posted at here and here.

Ask your Senator or Representative to send a similar letter as soon as possible.

2. Sign an online petition demanding Malalai Joya be granted a visa to the US.

Click here to sign the petition.

Share the petition on Facebook, Twitter, blogs, email.

3. Attend one of the many events organized for Malalai around the country.

Whether Joya is allowed to enter the US or not, the events will go on as scheduled, with Joya appearing either live or by video. Transform these events into declarations of your right to free speech and free association.

Tour details here.

4. Demand media coverage of Malalai's visa denial.

Contact local and national media, urge them to cover Malalai Joya's visa exclusion. The denial of a visa to Afghanistan's most intrepid and well known feminist should make headlines! See the Afghan Women's Mission's media release for details.

And I'll add number 5: share this post.

Medicare Provider Bureaucratic Nightmare

John Peters, a practicing psychologist, just sent me an email regarding a complete bureaucratic nightmare that has prevented his firm from obtaining a Medicare Provider Number.

John writes ...

Hi Mish,

I'm writing at the request of Customer Service at Palmetto GBA, the firm which handles all our Medicare processing.

As a practicing psychologist with offices in Fairfield and Albany, California, I have been attempting to obtain a Medicare Provider number.

I applied despite horror stories from doctors who informed me that just the enrollment process takes a few years and I may need to hire a professional to assist me.

Being a geek by nature, and already on the panels of five insurance companies and workman's comp, it seemed like a trivial matter to get one additional certification.

The first problem involved needing to complete a mandatory electronic payment form that I found via a Google search since the provider analyst never responded to any of my inquiries.

Months later I received a notice telling me that my application had been rejected with no reason given. By phone, I found out that they needed a canceled check which hadn't been included. However, I had received no request for a canceled check.

The provider analyst then said I needed to seek permission to re-enroll, a process that takes up to three months.

Persevering, I went through the process, getting “permission” to re-apply. After carefully seeking help going through exactly what would be needed in the new application, resubmitted it.

Months later I received another rejection. This time it was because they wanted a specific contact person's name from the bank on the electronic payment form instead of the general customer service name and number.

I was told that the provider analyst had sent me a request for the needed information, but that she had sent it to the wrong email address. Still, there was “nothing that they could do,” since my application number no longer existed and I needed to once again seek permission to re-apply with another three month wait.

Persevering, I noted the reasons for the rejection, and reapplied for permission to re-apply. Months later my request was rejected on the grounds that I had exceeded the 60 day period for requesting reconsideration.

It turns out the provider enrollment analyst used the initial versus current request number, despite my including the current request number in bold letters at the top of my letter.

Next, I send a letter which noted the error, and enclosed a copy of the rejection letter which confirmed that my response had been the following week. A month later, I received another rejection letter from the same analyst that merely copied her original reason for rejection. Clearly, the analyst had not even looked at the letter.

Since the customer service representative has no access to records, she can only direct me to a number for “complex cases.” I have tried for a month at various times of day, and have never been able to get through to anyone. Generally, after an extended message, the call is disconnected, or I am put on hold for about an hour before it disconnects. I was told that the reason for this is that they are “busy.”

In a period where the issue of government involvement in healthcare is being considered, I ask myself why there is absolutely no accountability for the worse than horrible management of Medicare?

The customer service representative at Palmetto noted that she deals with phone calls similar to mine all day, every day, that involve pure incompetency and the unwillingness of provider enrollment analysts to do their jobs. The representative went on to say that she is helpless to do anything, because they do not give her access to any records, and that contacting a congressman is about the only option available.

I've sent this email out to several California congressional representatives.

Sincerely,

John Peters, PhD

If anyone out there can help John, please shoot me an email. I will pass it on.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sightings.com UFO Newsletter Issue #10

Date Of Release: March 19, 2011

To join the free Yahoo Sightings.com UFO Newsletter, http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/Sightings_com/ (Please note: To receive the Newsletter you have to get it through Yahoo Groups)

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/ and the Jeff Rense radio program http://www.rense.com/. The Vike Factor UFO Blog http://the-v-factor-paranormal.blogspot.com/

Brian Vike can be heard on Rense Radio on the third Friday in each month with special guests.

Horseshoe Shaped Silver UFO Hovering Over Lakeland Florida

Date: October 1962
Time: Afternoon.

Number of witnesses: 3
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Horseshoe.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: I was living in Lakeland at the time, the Cuban missile crisis was going on and the sky was full of bombers, some had 8 small jets surrounding each one. They were in the air continually then one day there was none.

The sky was a perfect blue, no clouds and we were playing outside. At the same time we realized there was a hum, or vibration that made our hair on our arms tingle, almost like static when lightning is in the air. We all looked up at same time and saw this half circle/horseshoe shaped silver object just hovering.

To read the entire Sightings.com UFO Newsletter, please visit the following link: http://sightings-com-ufo-newsletter.blogspot.com/2011/03/sightingscom-ufo-newsletter-issue-10.html

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

Solid Orange Pulsating Ball Of Light Over Marathon Florida

Date: March 18, 2011
Time: 8:30 p.m.

Number of witnesses: 2
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Round.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: Hi Brian, we were sitting outside on the front of our Houseboat here in the Florida Keys. It was a beautiful clear still night, not to many stars though. We were taking pictures of the moon when my camera batteries died. I went in the house to look for new ones. My friend started pounding on the wall, yelling "Get out here!!'.

I ran outside, he says' look at that!", while pointing upwards. I looked up and freaked. It was a solid orange pulsating ball.

It was moving in a direct line southward towards Key West. It was not a shooting star (we've both seen those) and it was not a Chinese lantern (here at the Marina we let those go on New Years Eve, so I know what they look like). This was moving very fast in a direct line. I have never seen anything like this! Unfortunately it happened so fast that there wasn't time to try and take pictures.

Afterwards, I went in the house and started looking on line to see if anyone else reported this. That's how I found your page. We both stand by our story and this was definitely something we will never forget.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

6 Orange Glowing Lights Over Vero Beach Florida

Date: March 18, 2011
Time: 8:22 p.m.

Hi, last night, (March 18th, 2011 - 8:22pm) my husband and I saw 6 orange glowing lights in the southern sky moving (floating) slowly in a southwesterly direction. At first we thought they were helicopters, but we noticed there was absolutely no noise and they were in an odd formation.

We just watched them float and glow like candles and then they each burned out one by one and totally disappeared in the sky.

It was so eerie! We've never seen anything like that before. I'm glad my husband saw it because he would have never believed me!

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

Great line of the day

From Rev Paperboy, a prediction:

Tune in next week when he tells us that us that the government being found in contempt of Parliament is an example of how Michael Ignatieff hates democracy and is just some Johnny-come-lately who is playing games with the economy and is the son of Russian aristocrats not a "real immigrant"and besides LIBYA! FREEDOM! Democracy! Whisky! Sexy! We are at War! Don't switch horses in midstream!
And if that doesn't work, expect him to try proroguing the house again, just to "save it from itself" and delay the budget so that he can "focus on the economy and the war".

Yep, that sounds about right.

The Obama Doctrine

Fascinating article by Marc Ambinder on the back story of Obama's no-fly resolution and what it means for US strategy in the Middle East.
First, why did Obama flip?

They argued that if nothing was done, despots and beleaguered leaders everywhere would vow never to repeat the “mistake” of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who yielded power without foreign military intervention. Iran, in particular, would find itself with an incentive to continue to spread its proxy forces to other countries and further repress its own citizens. And Rice has made the reinvigoration of the United Nations one of her prime goals as ambassador. The legitimacy of that body was at stake too, she argued.

Second, what is the goal

It was important to the U.S. that Libyans and the world understand that this coalition of the willing was more than a U.S. rhetorical construct. An hour before bombing began Saturday, Clinton spoke to the press in Paris. Asked why military action was in America’s interest, she gave three reasons and implied a fourth. A destabilizing force would jeopardize progress in Tunisia and Egypt; a humanitarian disaster was imminent unless prevented; Qaddafi could not flout international law without consequences. The fourth: there’s a line now, and one that others countries had better not cross.

Third, what does this mean for the future

The development of a new doctrine in the Middle East is taking form, and it could become a paradigm for how the international community deals with unrest across the region from now on. The new elements include the direct participation of the Arab world, the visible participation of U.S. allies, as well as a very specific set of military targets designed to forestall needless human suffering.
Though the Libyan situation is quite unique - its military is nowhere near as strong as Iran’s is, for one thing – Obama hopes that a short, surgical, non-US-led campaign with no ground troops will satisfy Americans skeptical about military intervention and will not arouse the suspicions of Arabs and Muslims that the U.S. is attempting to influence indigenously growing democracies.

French Jets Strike Libyan Forces, Attack Tanks, Crowds Cheer; Hillary Clinton Influential in Decision to Attack

The Libyan intervention has begun, led by French military jets. The attack goes beyond a no-fly zone, striking at Libyan forces in the city of Benghazi, which is under heavy bombardment by Qaddafi’s forces. At least one Libyan tank has been destroyed.

Please consider Obama Takes Hard Line With Libya After Shift by Clinton

In a Paris hotel room on Monday night, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton found herself juggling the inconsistencies of American foreign policy in a turbulent Middle East. She criticized the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates for sending troops to quash protests in Bahrain even as she pressed him to send planes to intervene in Libya.

Only the day before, Mrs. Clinton — along with her boss, President Obama — was a skeptic on whether the United States should take military action in Libya. But that night, with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces turning back the rebellion that threatened his rule, Mrs. Clinton changed course, forming an unlikely alliance with a handful of top administration aides who had been arguing for intervention.

Within hours, Mrs. Clinton and the aides had convinced Mr. Obama that the United States had to act, and the president ordered up military plans, which Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, hand-delivered to the White House the next day. On Thursday, during an hour-and-a -half meeting, Mr. Obama signed off on allowing American pilots to join Europeans and Arabs in military strikes against the Libyan government.

The president had a caveat, though. The American involvement in military action in Libya should be limited — no ground troops — and finite. “Days, not weeks,” a senior White House official recalled him saying.

The change became possible, though, only after Mrs. Clinton joined Samantha Power, a senior aide at the National Security Council, and Susan Rice, Mr. Obama’s ambassador to the United Nations, who had been pressing the case for military action, according to senior administration officials speaking only on condition of anonymity. Ms. Power is a former journalist and human rights advocate; Ms. Rice was an Africa adviser to President Clinton when the United States failed to intervene to stop the Rwanda genocide, which Mr. Clinton has called his biggest regret.

Now, the three women were pushing for American intervention to stop a looming humanitarian catastrophe in Libya.

In joining Ms. Rice and Ms. Power, Mrs. Clinton made an unusual break with Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, who, along with the national security adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, and the counterterrorism chief, John O. Brennan, had urged caution. Libya was not vital to American national security interests, the men argued, and Mr. Brennan worried that the Libyan rebels remained largely unknown to American officials, and could have ties to Al Qaeda.

“Hillary and Susan Rice were key parts of this story because Hillary got the Arab buy-in and Susan worked the U.N. to get a 10-to-5 vote, which is no easy thing,” said Brian Katulis, a national security expert with the Center for American Progress, a liberal group with close ties to the administration. This “puts the United States in a much stronger position because they’ve got the international support that makes this more like the 1991 gulf war than the 2003 Iraq war.”

Allied Intervention Begins as French Jet Strikes Libyan Forces

The New York Times reports Allied Intervention Begins as French Jet Strikes Libyan Forces

President Nicolas Sarkozy said French military jets had begun enforcing the no-fly zone over the eastern city of Benghazi, which is under heavy bombardment by Qaddafi’s forces.

American, European and Arab leaders began the largest international military intervention in the Arab world since the invasion of Iraq on Saturday, in an effort to stop Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s war on the Libyan opposition.

Leaders meeting in Paris on Saturday afternoon announced that air operations to enforce a no-fly zone and protect civilians had begun over Libya, as approved by the United Nations Security Council on Thursday. And the French military announced that a Rafale jet fighter had destroyed a government tank near the de facto rebel capital, Benghazi, in eastern Libya.

Earlier in the day, people in Benghazi reported heavy bombardment and fighting, despite an ultimatum from Western powers that Mr. Qaddafi hold to a cease-fire. A rebel fighter, speaking over the phone, described a procession of tanks as well as rooftop snipers fighting for the Qaddafi forces in the west of the city. And a steady stream of vehicles, some bearing rebel flags, was seen pouring out of Benghazi toward the rebel-held city of Bayda, where crowds were cheering the first French overflights.

“Our assessment is that the aggressive actions by Qaddafi forces continue in many places around the country,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said after the meeting in Paris concluded. “We saw it over the last 24 hours, and we’ve seen no real effort on the part of the Qaddafi forces to abide by a cease-fire despite the rhetoric.”

Even as Colonel Qaddafi defied demands to withdraw his military, he issued letters warning Mr. Obama and other leaders to hold back from military action against him.

The tone of the letters — one addressed to Mr. Obama and a second to Mr. Sarkozy, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain and Secretary General Ban Ki-moon of the United Nations — suggested that Colonel Qaddafi was leaving himself little room to back down.

“Libya is not yours. Libya is for all Libyans,” he wrote in one letter, read to the news media by a spokesman. “This is injustice, it is clear aggression, and it is uncalculated risk for its consequences on the Mediterranean and Europe.

“You will regret it if you take a step toward intervening in our internal affairs.”

Colonel Qaddafi addressed President Obama as “our son,” in a letter that combined pleas with a jarring familiarity. “I have said to you before that even if Libya and the United States enter into war, God forbid, you will always remain my son and I have all the love for you as a son, and I do not want your image to change with me,” he wrote. “We are confronting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, nothing more. What would you do if you found them controlling American cities with the power of weapons? Tell me how would you behave so that I could follow your example?”

The initial stage of the military operation will be run by France and Britain with significant American help, including radar planes, command and control, and precision-guided munitions, including cruise missiles and B52 bombers, NATO officials said.

But Mrs. Clinton emphasized that the United States was not leading the effort. “We did not lead this,” she said. “We did not engage in unilateral actions in any way, but we strongly support the international community taking action against governments and leaders who behave as Qaddafi is unfortunately doing so now.”

Limiting the US role to support would be wise, assuming one believes we should do anything at all. Other than provide radar guidance for British and French jets, that decision having clearly been made already, the less US intervention the better.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Gallup Poll Pegs Unemployment Rate at 10.2%, Underemployment at 19.9%, Same as Last Year

I am very skeptical of BLS unemployment rates inching lower. Not only do the BLS reports discount millions of marginally attached and discouraged workers but BLS seasonal adjustments seem more than a bit unusual.

Gallup polls paint a far different picture. Please consider Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.2% in Mid-March

Unemployment Rate



Part-Time Workers Wanting Full-Time Job



Underemployment



Click on any chart for a sharper image.

The only valid way to compare not seasonally-adjusted numbers is to compare the numbers to the same month a year ago. I added the red circles on the above charts to show just that.

Note that year-over-year comparisons of the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate, and the part-time for economic reasons rate, all show no significant change compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile the BLS would have you believe the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 8.9% over the course of the last year.

Jobs Situation About the Same as It Was a Year Ago

The government's February report on the U.S. unemployment situation suggests that 192,000 jobs were created last month and the unemployment rate declined to 8.9%, down from 9.7% a year ago. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley and others said they were encouraged by this report.

However, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures have not shown the same gains in early 2011. Gallup finds an unemployment rate (10.2%) and an underemployment rate (19.9%) for mid-March that are essentially the same as those from mid-March 2010.

In part, the difference between Gallup's and the government's current job market assessments may be due to the government's seasonal adjustments. Gallup's U.S. unemployment rate is also more up-to-date -- its mid-March data include jobless figures for much of March, whereas the government's latest unemployment rate is based on the jobs situation in mid-February.

Most importantly, a key reason the government's unemployment rate is dropping apparently has to do with the so-called participation rate: the percentage of Americans who are counted as being in the workforce. The government's participation rate in February was at its lowest level since 1984. In essence, this tends to suggest that the government's unemployment rate may be declining because many people are becoming discouraged and leaving the workforce -- not because they are getting new jobs.

If this is the case, then neither Gallup's unemployment report nor that provided by the government is good news for the economy. It is equally bad news if people are out of work and looking for a job or just too discouraged to say they continue to do so. Either way, a lack of sufficient job creation to increase employment among those who want to work remains a major obstacle to U.S. economic growth in the months ahead.

Gallup offers reasonable commentary. There is no reason to be excited over the BLS dip in the unemployment rate.

Here is another way of looking at it, using the BLS' own numbers.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Seasonally Adjusted Total

According to the BLS, non-farm employment is lower than it was in 2002!

Household Data



In the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,853,000. Yet the labor force dropped by 312,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,165,000.

In January alone, a whopping 319,000 people dropped out of the workforce. In February (this months' report) another 87,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 11% (Rosenberg pegs it at 12%).

On a year-over-year basis the number of people employed dropped by 125,000 yet we are supposed to believe things are getting better. From a jobs standpoint the best we can say is things are no longer getting worse. However, we can also state the BLS unemployment rate is a complete distortion of reality.

Finally, take a look at that employment chart and tell me where the demand for housing is going to come from. Here's a hint: you can't do it. For further discussion of housing, please see Shrinking Labor Pool Means Shrinking Demand For Housing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Crazy

When Alberta MLA Raj Sherman kept talking about vendettas against doctors and coverups of lung cancer deaths, I started to think his accusations were just too bizarre and he was maybe a little nuts.
But now we're finding out that accusing health system critics of being mentally ill is one of the sleazy tactics that has been used for years to discredit doctors and shut them up.
No matter how cynical I get, I just can't keep up.

Bright Neon Green Circular Light/Object Over Crystal Lake Illinois

Date: March 16, 2011

Time: Approx: 9:05 p.m.

I was driving down Huntley Road, Crystal Lake Illinois, United States at around 9:05pm on a Wednesday night. Out of no where a very neon, very bright, very circular, green light appeared above my car. This green light had an absolutely huge diameter, it looked as if it was an almost perfect circle too. Then, it flew and disappeared into the sky miles away.

Less than 5 seconds after, the same ordeal happened. The light was phenomenally big and extremely neon. Unlike anything else.

At first, I immediately pulled over to see if it has been a telephone wire, and I didn't notice anything off any of the wires with something abnormal. Nor did the poles that hold the wires look broken. I searched the sky, and saw nothing.

The next day there was no sign of electricians on the road. No sign that it could have been anything else. The realness of it was insane.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

shocking photo: dog pack attacks alligator

ANGINA NEWS EDITION NINE-GUESS WHAT EVIL THIS WAY COMES

This posting contains a video. To hear it properly, please mute the sound on the "Ave Maria" music widget located on the right hand side of this page.


GUESS WHAT EVIL THIS WAY COMES?

greenwald: manning forced nudity = media tipping point

Glenn Greenwald, including links and emphasis:

The forced nudity imposed on Bradley Manning followed by the forced resignation of P.J. Crowley has clearly created a media tipping point in this story. In addition to the scathing New York Times Editorial from Monday (Manning's treatment "conjures creepy memories of how the Bush administration used to treat terror suspects"), editorial condemnation has now come from The Los Angeles Times ("punishment, not protection, is the purpose of these degrading measures") and The Guardian ("There was at least the ghost of an excuse for bullying foreign combatants but no US need for mistreating one of their own"). Perhaps most notably, even the military-revering, establishment-defending Washington Post Editorial Page today emphatically condemns these conditions as "uncomfortably close to the kind of intimidating and humiliating tactics disavowed after the abuses at the Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo prisons that eroded the country’s standing in the world."

The abusive treatment of Manning is indeed now reverberating internationally. Der Spiegel has a long article on the conditions of Manning's detention, noting that "even US politicians believe they're illegal" and highlighting the point I've repeatedly made:

Before he was inaugurated, Obama talked about the importance of whistleblowers, or sources who expose abuses within their organizations. Such "acts of courage and patriotism" ought to be "encouraged, rather than stifled," his website read at the time.

Once in office, Obama underwent a radical shift. His government is currently taking legal action against a number of whistleblowers. The government apparently wants to use the Manning case as a deterrent.

Meanwhile, The Guardian has an excellent article today describing how Physicians for Human Rights is now formally raising objections to the role of brig psychiatrists in enabling Manning's inhumane treatment (just as they once raised objections to the role played by health professionals at Guantanamo).

Plus: Tom Tomorrow: The president consults with General Flustercluck.

Canadian and Australian Dollar vs. the Price of Crude; Reflections on the PPI and the Commodity Bubble

Here is a pair of interesting charts showing the correlation between the Canadian and Australian dollar vs. the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.

Australian Dollar vs. Crude



Canadian Dollar vs. Crude



Both the Australian and Canadian dollars have a strong correlation with crude going all the way back to 1997. Should the correlation continue to hold, and there is no reason to believe it won't, then if the price of crude drops, the Loonie and the Australian dollar will both likely drop as well.

Reflections on the PPI

Earlier today someone told me via email that my "silence on the PPI and CPI was deafening".

Actually I have seldom directly commented on the CPI or PPI recently even when the CPI was low.

However, I have commented on commodity prices on many occasions expressing the viewpoint "those looking for inflation can find it in China and India where credit is running rampant".

Commodity prices are set at the margin and China is overheating. When China cools (and it will in my opinion), commodity prices will drop.

Commodity Bubble

People are entitled to believe what they want, but I will side with John Hussman who thinks commodities are in a bubble.

From Hussman Anatomy of a Bubble

In the stock market, I believe that there is indeed a "bubble" component in current prices, but it is not nearly as large as we observed in the approach to the 2000 peak, nor as extreme as we observed on the approach to the 2007 peak. My hope is that investors have learned something. That's not entirely clear, but we'll be as flexible as we can while also being mindful of the risks.

While my view is that bubble components can come and go in the markets, they sometimes become so large and well-defined that they take on a very distinct profile. Such bubbles included the advance to the 2000 stock market peak, the housing bubble, the advance in oil prices to their peak in 2008, the advance in the Nikkei in the late 1980's, and other clearly parabolic advances.

On that note, it's clear to me that we're seeing classic bubbles in a variety of commodities. It is very unlikely that this is simply due to global demand growth. Even with an exhaustible resource, it is a well-known economic result (Hotelling's rule) that the optimal extraction rule is one where the price rises at a rate not much different from the interest rate. What we've seen lately is commodity hoarding, predictably resulting from negative real interest rates provoked by the Fed's policy of quantitative easing.

Fortunately for the world's poor, the speculative dynamic that has created a massive surge in commodity prices appears very close to running its course, as we see very similar "microdynamics" in agricultural commodities as we saw with oil in 2008. That's not to say that we have a good idea of precisely how high prices will move over the short term. The blowoff phase of a bubble tends to be steep, but so short-lived that it affords little opportunity to exit. As prices advance in an uncorrected parabola, the one-sided nature of the speculation typically gives way to a frantic effort of speculators to exit simultaneously. Crashes are always a reflection of illiquidity in two-sided trading - the inability of sellers to find eager buyers at nearby prices.

On the subject of commodities, it's a natural question whether gold falls into the same category as agricultural commodities. After all, gold and other hard assets have an important role as an alternative to money to store value, and it appears clear that the world is monetizing in a way that is unlikely to be fully reversed even if policy makers wish to do so down the road.

In my view, it's not clear that gold is in a bubble here, but it will be important to watch for the earmarks of a classic bubble. Below, I've plotted the price of gold against a "canonical" log-periodic bubble. Already, we're seeing some behavior that is characteristic of a bubble-type advance. A Sornette-type analysis generates a finite-time singularity as early as April, but there are other fits that are consistent with a more sustained advance. If we observe a virtually uncorrected advance toward about 1500 in the next several weeks, the steep and uncorrected advance would imply an increasing hazard probability.

My response to the above was Anatomy of Bubbles; Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited; Is Gold in a Bubble?

I agree with Hussman about the bubble in commodities not only because of the speculation angle but also because of unsustainable growth in China. When China stalls, it will likely take commodities and the commodity producing countries down with it, notably Australia and Canada.

Finally, gold is acting more like a currency than a natural-resource commodity (because that is what it is). It may or may not be immune to a commodity-related selloff, and much depends on the actions of central banks down the road.

Those who insist on a direct quote regarding the recent PPI report, here it is: "Commodities are in a bubble and the PPI is reflective of that bubble."

Of course bubbles can always get bigger. Oil hit $140 in 2008. Perhaps it does again in 2011, but barring a major disruption in Saudi Arabia or Iran, I rather doubt it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Horseshoe Shaped Silver UFO Hovering Over Lakeland Florida

Date: October 1962

Time: Afternoon.

Number of witnesses: 3
Number of Objects: 1
Shape of Objects: Horseshoe.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: I was living in Lakeland at the time, the Cuban missile crisis was going on and the sky was full of bombers, some had 8 small jets surrounding each one. They were in the air continually then one day there was none.

The sky was a perfect blue, no clouds and we were playing outside. At the same time we realized there was a hum, or vibration that made our hair on our arms tingle, almost like static when lightning is in the air. We all looked up at same time and saw this half circle/horseshoe shaped silver object just hovering.

It had five dome shaped lights hanging on the bottom and they alternated colors, dull green to dull red. It was about the altitude of a small plane might fly at. It hovered and maybe a minute later the UFO left suddenly.

I became a UFO fanatic, curious now after all this time we still don't have anything like that technology. I’ve had the pleasure of seeing two UFOs in my life, both thought changing.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

3 Bright Objects Over Gene Coulon Memorial Beach Park Renton Washington

Date: March 17, 2011

Time: 8:30 p.m.

Number of witnesses: 1
Number of Objects: 3
Shape of Objects: Bright, hovering, could not make out shape.

Full Description of Event/Sighting: I was walking my dog near Gene Coulon Park when I saw 3 large bright 'star like' objects hovering in straight formation, vertically, with space between them over the Renton area for several minutes.

I was standing on Lake Washington and looking southwest towards Boeing Field, but it was beyond that and the objects glowed very high above the neighborhood in the distance (the one that is on the hill).

I'm fairly new to this area and don't know the names of the neighborhoods well enough to identify.

The top object then moved away from the others and appeared to fly north towards Bellevue. A few moments later the second one left and flew in the same direction and within a few moments of that, the third one flew exactly the same.

I was not able to make out any kind of shape except once they began flying I did see colored lights that I didn't see when they were just hovering in one spot.

If you have seen anything like this in the same area please be kind enough to contact Brian Vike at: sighting@telus.net with the details of your sighting. All personal information is kept confidential.

Sightings.com website: http://www.sightings.com/

Prices Raised for Some US Mint Silver Products

The US Mint has just made effective pricing changes for certain products with silver coins. This includes the 2010 Silver Proof Set, 2010 America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set, and the upcoming 2011 Quarters Silver Proof Set.

The change comes in response to the rising market price of silver. During 2010, the price of silver gained more than 80%. For the year to date, silver is up about 14.5%.

In a recent post, I made mention of the fact that with higher silver prices, some currently available US Mint products had melt values approaching their product prices. The opportunity proved brief, as one of the products was suspended about a week later, and the other product closest to melt had its price adjusted today.

The pricing adjustments are as follows:

	Previous	New	Change
2010 Silver Proof Set	56.95	64.95	+8.00
2010 Quarters Silver Proof Set	32.95	39.95	+7.00
2011 Quarters Silver Proof Set	39.95	41.95	+2.00

The 2011 America the Beautiful Quarters Silver Proof Set is not yet available at the US Mint. Sales are scheduled to begin on March 29, 2011. The previous price was published in the Federal Register in January when the US Mint published prices for this year's products.

The price for the 2011 Silver Proof Set remains unchanged at $67.95.

Rand Paul on the "False Budget Choice", on Fixing Social Security "In Perpetuity", on Obama's "Abdication in Leadership"

Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) and Senator Mike Lee (Utah) go after both Republicans and Democrats in a segment with Kudlow.



URL if above video does not play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqBGrl-nuT0&feature=player_embedded

Rand Paul on Balancing the Budget

Senator Rand Paul: "I do not think we should shut down government but I do not like either the Democrat or the Republican proposal. Both of them perpetuate enormous deficits. The annual deficit will be $1.65 trillion under the Democrats and $1.55 trillion under the Republicans."

"I did not come to Washington to vote for deficits, I came to balance the budget, and cut federal spending. People at home don't understand what's going on. Up here people think we could never cut $500 billion. At home, when I tell them we are going to cut $500 billion, they say that's only a third of the problem, I want you to cut more"

"This isn't an either-or situation. It's not a Hobson's Choice. There is something in between. It's not either we spend what they want or we shut it down. What if we spend what we have? I'm all for spending about $2.2 trillion, that about what we bring in."

Fixing Social Security "In Perpetuity"

Rand Paul goes on to say that he will introduce a bill that will fix Social Security "In Perpetuity". Details did not come out in the interview.

Rand Paul Accuses Obama of "Abdication in Leadership"

Senator Mike Lee: "We desperately need presidential leadership. So far what we've had from the president is radio silence."

Senator Rand Paul: "I call it an abdication in leadership. I do not think he wants to lead or is willing to lead. I think we can have leaders in Congress who boldly say this is how we fix Social Security, this is how we fix Medicare, and this is how we fix the budget"

Rand Paul Introduces Five-Year Balanced Budget Plan



URL if above video does not play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vDNmE_M7E

Filling the Leadership Vacuum

I agree with Rand Paul's charge about leadership. I said the same thing a few days ago in Global Crisis in Leadership Nearly Everywhere You Look

It is good to see someone attempt to fill the leadership vacuum, and in a productive manner.

Unfortunately little can happen because of the blockage in the Senate by the Democrats unless Obama is willing to lead, and lead responsibly. He won't.

The sad reality is that none of the Republicans currently running for president in 2012 are willing to do what's needed either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

UN Security Council Authorizes No-Fly Zone; Qaddafi Declares Cease-Fire, "Willing to Talk to Rebels"; Military Planning Continues; What's Next?

In a 10-0 vote with 5 abstentions, the UN security council authorized a no-Fly zone over Libya. Proving that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi was prepared for this in advance Libya Calls Cease-Fire After Britain and France Vow Action ‘Soon’

Hours after the United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military action and a no-fly zone, Libya executed a remarkable about-face on Friday, saying it would call an “immediate cease-fire and the stoppage of all military operations” against rebels seeking to oust Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.

It was unclear what effect a cease-fire, if honored, might have, but the offer drew some skepticism in the West. Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain told the BBC of Colonel Qaddafi: “We will judge him by his actions, not his words.”

Mr. Cameron told the House of Commons that the Royal Air Force would deploy Tornado jets and Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes, “as well as air-to-air refueling and surveillance aircraft.”

“Preparations to deploy these have already started, and in the coming hours they will move to air bases from where they can take the necessary action," Mr. Cameron said.

The Typhoon is a fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles for shooting down airplanes, as well as laser-guided bombs for targets on the ground. The Tornado is especially well suited for attacking runways — that was its first combat mission, in the Persian Gulf war, when the planes swooped in to bomb runways in Iraq, facing thick anti-aircraft defenses that shot down several of the planes.

Before the cease-fire was announced, the Libyan leader signaled his intentions in Benghazi. “We will come house by house, room by room,” Colonel Qaddafi said Thursday on a radio call-in show before the United Nations vote. “It’s over. The issue has been decided.” To those who continued to resist, he vowed: “We will find you in your closets. We will have no mercy and no pity.”

In a television broadcast later, he added: “The world is crazy, and we will be crazy, too.”

Military Planning Continues

Bloomberg reports Qaddafi Cease-Fire Bid Fails to Deter Allies’ Military Planning

Western allies pressed on with plans for military action against Libya after Muammar Qaddafi’s regime declared an immediate cease-fire and said it was willing to talk to rebels.

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, who was preparing a set of demands with President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, said he would judge Qaddafi by his actions and not his words.

Cameron told lawmakers the U.K. would “in the coming hours” deploy Tornado and Typhoon warplanes, air-to-air refueling craft and surveillance aircraft to enforce the no-fly zone. After Cameron spoke in London, Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa made the cease-fire announcement in a televised news conference carried by Al Arabiya television.

Cameron told Parliament in London that the UN resolution falls short of giving the authority for regime change in Libya, saying “we have to restrict ourselves” even though “almost every leader has actually said the Qaddafi regime has to go.”

Obama called Cameron and Sarkozy last night to discuss enacting the resolution, the White House said in a statement. The three agreed to work closely with Arab and other international partners on enforcing the terms of the resolution and called for an end to the violence against civilians in Libya, the White House said.

Italian newspapers, including Corriere della Sera, reported today that the government would make three bases available to support a no-fly zone -- Sigonella and Trapani Birgi in Sicily and Gioia del Colle near the southern city of Bari.

France’s Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is at its base in the Mediterranean port of Toulon and could be called into service on the mission.

Denmark has committed to sending six F-16 fighter planes to help back the no-fly zone, Copenhagen-based newswire Ritzau reported, citing Defense Minister Gitte Lillelund Bech. Canada will deploy six CF-18 fighter jets, Postmedia News reported, citing unnamed sources.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said in Madrid today he will seek Parliament’s approval to deploy air and naval forces to back the UN resolution on Libya and will cede bases in Spain to back the operation.

Turkey, a majority-Muslim member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, does not support military intervention in Libya “for the moment,” said Selcuk Unal, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

NATO member Germany said it wouldn’t join any intervention. “German soldiers won’t take part in a military mission in Libya,” Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said.

What now? What good does it do to bomb runways if Qaddafi does honor the cease-fire? What if the rebels break the cease-fire?

A cease-fire leaves Libya in a divided state. Invading Libya with ground troops is out of the question, at least it should be.

What appeared a few weeks ago would be over quickly, certainly isn't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

time-of-use energy pricing coming to ontario; is this a good thing or a bad thing?

Beginning May 1, Ontario will begin time-of-use pricing for energy* use.

With time-of-use pricing, electricity use will be billed at three different rates: off-peak (least expensive), mid-peak and peak (most expensive). Mid-peak is a higher rate than current billing, and off-peak is a lower rate. That is, under the new pricing plan, your bill cannot stay the same; it can only go up or go down.

There are also two different time-of-use pricing models, one for May through November, the other from November to May.

Compare this to our current rate of 6.4 cents/kWh.

Ontario has been gradually reducing its dependence on coal-fired electric plants, down from 25% in 2003 to the current 8%. The last coal-fired plant is supposed to be closed by 2030, a big step towards cleaner air and better health. Infrastructure is being upgraded, renewable sources expanded, and all that other stuff that means rates are slated to significantly increase.

So TOU pricing involves a choice between changing habits and escalating costs. With the price of energy expected to rise considerably over the next decade, most people will want to change habits.

There are very home electricity habits that one can reasonably change. Most people are not going to sit in the dark, not watch television or use their computers anytime they want, or cook dinner in the middle of the night. Some people consider air-conditioning a wasteful indulgence; for me it's a necessity. So in my view, the two most common home energy-use habits that one can change are using the dishwasher and doing the laundry, especially using the dryer.

The dishwasher is easy: run it at night. Start it before you go to bed and in the morning your dishes are clean.*

Laundry is a bit trickier. If you do your laundry on the weekends, that's already off-peak. But I'm at work all weekend, and generally do my laundry during normal working hours. I'm experimenting with different strategies of how to get the laundry done without staying up too late or working when I need to be resting.

I've heard it claimed that TOU pricing discriminates against working people, especially working parents who are over-burdened and pressed for time. Naturally I would oppose any scheme that redistributed a burden downward. But I haven't been able to figure out how TOU pricing unfairly burdens one group of people over another.

Overall, lower-income people are being walloped with cost increases from every side, and incomes never keep pace with the ever-escalating cost of living. I'd love to see energy use priced on a sliding scale according to income, but that will require a revolution. Instead, we have a few tax credits and rebates to help working people recover a few costs.

But specifically, how does TOU - as opposed to the current uniform rate - unfairly affect working people?

Weekends and evenings are off-peak, and that's when most working people do their laundry. TOU pricing would certainly unfairly burden working people if off-peak was during normal hours, but it's not. Many low-income people don't own washers and dryers, and if laundromats go to TOU rates, those would also reflect weekend and evening discounts.

If I'm missing some big piece of the puzzle, please fill me in. In general, do you think TOU is A Good Thing? Are you in favour of it? Will you change your habits to adjust?



* Note that in Ontario, many people refer to electricity, regardless of source, as "hydro". I find this ridiculous and will not say it.

** I'm aware that one can also wash dishes by hand. Since Allan and I never had a dishwasher before we moved to Canada, we feel we've paid our dues in that department. What's more, using a dishwasher actually helps us eat more healthfully and save money.